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Republicans may have to make hard choices this fall as they shape their strategy for keeping the Senate — and some think it might not include North Carolina or Georgia.
Just 10 years ago, those two southern states formed the bedrock of Republicans’ Senate majorities. But as President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings hamper the party’s candidates nationwide and widen the battleground map, some in the GOP want to adjust tactics and consider moving money away from races where its candidates are struggling to gain traction.
“These are always tough decisions, but it’s a zero-sum game. It’s important that resources are directed where there’s a high probability of a winning outcome,” one Republican senator told Semafor. “North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind. It’s not an easy environment.”
That senator said picking up seats in Michigan and New Hampshire as well as holding onto Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska are all more fertile ground for holding onto the Senate: “When it all settles we’re going to win those seats, objectively. But I think we’re going to have a hard time in North Carolina and Georgia.”
Republicans don’t yet agree on their battleground blueprint; some would prefer to keep hammering away at former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. But less than two months out from Election Day, the party’s internal divide reflects the urgency with which they’re working to hang onto at least one chamber of Congress next year — as the House looks increasingly likely to flip to Democrats.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, generally set the tone for where the party should invest its money. In an interview, Thune acknowledged there’s a fork in the road coming.
He said it’s too early to give up on North Carolina and Georgia, adding that he’s planning to travel soon to help Rep. Mike Collins against Ossoff. Though some Republicans privately believe they have little chance of victory in either state, Thune said “there’s game left to play” in both states even as he recognized the degree of difficulty.
“We’ll have to obviously make decisions when it comes to resources about where we’re going to invest the most, and that’ll be shaped by: it’s all about keeping the majority and protecting the majority. So you know there are certain firewall states we just have to win,” Thune said. “North Carolina, Georgia are margin-of-error races. It’s challenging in both cases.”
Cooper and Ossoff have maintained leads over their respective GOP opponents. Neither North Carolina nominee Michael Whatley nor Collins are incumbents; both parties often stay in until the end behind sitting senators who face uphill paths. At the moment, GOP groups are currently still set to spend tens of millions in Georgia and North Carolina this fall, according to AdImpact.
Two red-state incumbents are facing strong challengers: Sens. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Jon Husted, R-Ohio. And Democrats are also going after sitting GOP senators in Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said Republicans should take a hard look at North Carolina and Georgia when assessing how to keep senators like Sullivan afloat: “Move on? Maybe. Obviously we have limited resources, and we want to put them where we’re likely to win. And it would really suck if we lose in Alaska, for example, where we aren’t spending the resources.”
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who successfully implored Trump’s super PACs to come into Texas to help the NRSC and SLF, said those groups are ruthless if they think candidates can’t win: “They’ll pull it from you in a nanosecond.”
North Carolina and Georgia are “not looking good,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a two-time NRSC chair. “Georgia looks like it’s pretty close to done. And North Carolina seems to be close to that. I’m still hopeful that something will change. But you know, at some point things get baked in.”
Senate Leadership Fund has raised and invested hundreds of millions of dollars across the Senate map this cycle. Chris Gustafson, a spokesperson for SLF, says that “thanks to Leader Thune and SLF’s historic fundraising, Republicans are able to make investments across the map to retain our Senate majority.”
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Both parties routinely shift limited money around in Senate races, a difficult decision because it alienates candidates before Election Day. In 2022, SLF bailed on Arizona candidate Blake Masters. In 2016, Democrats moved away from their fading candidates in Florida and Ohio.
Money moves say a lot more than public polls about where parties think races are competitive.
Even with Ossoff’s durable lead, one national Republican official said spending on behalf of Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson could help Collins against Ossoff. Cooper’s lead over Whatley is still in the single digits, this official added, and late-breaking voters could still shift the race toward Republicans.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., also a former NRSC chair, said Jackson’s spending is “going to help us a lot.”
Scott added that “Whatley’s a good candidate, but running against a [former] governor is hard.”
Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., agreed that Whatley’s in “a tough race,” but said “there’s a pathway to victory.” He urged national Republicans to “stay in. What you don’t want is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s a late-breaking state.”
The party’s biggest money drain is in Texas, which public polls show as more competitive than North Carolina or Georgia. Trump-affiliated groups and an SLF-affiliated group are plowing huge sums into the race to help Republican Ken Paxton against Democratic nominee James Talarico.
Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in the primary, said he isn’t sure it’s the best use of money. He added that the NRSC Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., is “going to have to make some hard decisions, and Texas could eventually be one of them.”
While he’s holding fundraisers next week focused on other races, Cornyn warned Republicans that “pouring another $100 million in Texas jeopardizes other races, and I think the most important thing in the end is that Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate.”
Cornyn’s colleague, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said without the money Paxton’s message will not get seen by enough voters, putting the seat at risk.
“I’m glad we’re investing money that is needed in the race because if the voters don’t know Talarico’s record and Paxton’s record, then we could easily lose it,” Cruz said. “And to communicate that takes money.”
Room for Disagreement
Democrats have been burned by September leads that felt durable but faded in October. They say they don’t see either North Carolina or Georgia as over.
“Neither Ossoff nor Cooper feel that way because they just are recognizing their states have history. They’re tough states, so I feel really good about both. I’ve done events for both. I know both states very well, but there’s no complacency about it,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va.
Burgess’s view
It’s always painful for either party to give up on Senate races that once looked promising, but sometimes that’s necessary to avoid disaster in November. Those conversations are happening now, but may not be finalized for a couple weeks.
I’m not sure that Republicans will totally give up on both North Carolina and Georgia, but it’s very clear that their best path to winning is elsewhere as of now — and I’d expect top GOP strategists to act accordingly if nothing changes.
Notable
- Democrats are poised to outspend Republicans in the Georgia Senate race currently as the battleground map goes deeper into red territory, The New York Times reports.