The 10-year US Treasury yield topped 5% Monday for the first time since 2023 as the widening Middle East conflict pushed oil prices up, cementing policymakers’ shift to a more hawkish posture.
The possibility of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting this week edged above 90% on Monday, following a hot US inflation reading; the ECB raised rates last week, and traders expect the Bank of Japan to do the same on Friday.
Successive energy supply shocks have prompted central banks to rip up the “look-through doctrine” that assumes such disruptions are transitory, a Bloomberg columnist argued. “The greater risk now is inaction, even if tighter policy spreads economic pain via higher borrowing costs and weaker growth.”
