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Exclusive / Liberal group: Tariffs, megabill leave 99% worse off

Eleanor Mueller
Eleanor Mueller
Congress Reporter, Semafor
Sep 10, 2025, 6:03am EDT
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Donald Trump holding his tariff sign
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Ninety-nine percent of Americans will see their incomes decrease in 2027 due to the combined effects of Trump’s tariffs and megabill, according to an analysis of nonpartisan data by the left-leaning Center for American Progress out today.

The analysis, shared first with Semafor, found that all Americans will make less in 2029 after some of the megabill’s tax provisions expire. By then, “average incomes are down by 5% for the poorest and 2% for folks in the middle class,” author Corey Husak said.

“We’re trying to see what people are going to be feeling — and if you’re losing 2% to 5% of your income, you’re probably going to be feeling that.”

Husak noted the analysis did not account for the lapse of Obamacare credits — but if it did, incomes would decrease even more.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that “economic forecasters made similar doom-and-gloom predictions during President Trump’s first term, when the very same agenda … unleashed historic job, wage and economic growth.”

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