The failure of two candidates — one Democratic and one independent — to consolidate anti-Republican support against GOP candidate Kurt Alme is propelling him to victory, according to polling first shared with Semafor.
Alme is currently winning 44% of the vote, while independent Seth Bodnar is capturing 22% and Democrat Alani Bankhead is getting 19%, according to a late August survey from Peak Insights commissioned by the Alme campaign. Thirteen percent of voters remain undecided.
Both Bodnar and Bankhead declined to withdraw from the race this summer as they split the anti-Alme vote, a dynamic that has cleared the path for Alme to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont.
The poll finds that Bodnar and Bankhead are splitting the Democratic vote, 49% to 43% respectively. Bodnar is only narrowly winning independent voters over Alme.