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This fall’s battle for House control is exposing a divide between two types of Democratic candidates — prominent battleground hopefuls with well-stocked campaign coffers, and lesser-known challengers whose fundraising is struggling to keep up with the GOP.
Leaders in the first category include Iowa Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, who had $3.86 million cash on hand on June 30, compared with Republican incumbent Zach Nunn’s $3.6 million, and Pennsylvania Democrat Paige Cognetti, who had $3.4 million in the bank in late June, versus $2.6 million for Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.
In more competitive swing-district races — the kind that could make the difference between a tiny House Democratic majority and one with a double-digit seat advantage — the picture is more dire, thanks to tougher primaries or more recent elevation by the national party.
Take Christina Hines in Michigan or Brian Poindexter in Ohio, both vying to win seats that were out of reach in previous cycles but are now seen as viable for Democrats, given President Donald Trump’s sinking approval ratings. Hines had about $158,000 in the bank at the end of June, nearly one-seventh as much as Republican Mike Bouchard’s $1.14 million.
And Poindexter had about $312,000 in the bank, vastly outgunned by controversial Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller’s $1.4 million.
Democrats vow that their ambitions for November won’t suffer as a result, but the GOP is hoping that its fundraising strength in several critical races can help defy history and hold onto the House. And the prospect of massive late-campaign spending by Elon Musk or Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. could easily make Republican hopes look more realistic.
“I’ve been telling everybody that whatever the polls say, you should assume you’re sailing to a five-point headwind because they’re going to throw a bunch of money in races. They’re going to play a bunch of dirty tricks at the end of the cycle,” said Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., who got elected in House Democrats’ first-term Trump midterm wave.
Democrats only need to flip three seats to win the House, but if they want any chance at a workable majority next year, they’re hoping to push into redder territory for more padding. That’s where the candidate fundraising divide promises to sting hardest; challengers in easier-to-claim districts like Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey and Cait Conley in New York are boasting impressive totals, but Democrats risk being outspent in trickier areas.
“From the NRCC to our candidates and the broader Republican ecosystem, we’re entering the final stretch with the resources and organization to compete in all corners where Democrats are vulnerable,” National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement to Semafor.
Democratic leaders are confident that the wind is at their backs: “Republicans have to beg their billionaire backers to prop up their floundering campaigns because they can’t keep up with the grassroots support powering Democrats,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton.
“But no amount of Musk money will stop House Republicans from losing in November.”
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There’s plenty of history to look back on for House Democrats who worry that a favorable political climate could get blunted by last-minute GOP spending. The party left both the 2016 and 2020 cycles chastened by predictions of huge gains that never materialized.
Most Democrats who are speaking out, though, believe that this year’s midterm environment will be good enough for them to overcome the monetary deficit. As more candidates get added to the coveted “Red to Blue” list that helps unlock more fundraising and national support, the cash imbalance also promises to shrink.
Republicans “have significant resources, so you have to take that seriously. But I will say that our individual candidates are hitting their marks in what they need to raise,” said Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill.
To make up for some of the financial disparities, the campaign arms of both parties are starting to make coordinated ad buys with House candidates in tight races; among them is Hines, the Michigan Democrat.
Some Democrats, like Michigan Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, argued that candidates didn’t actually need to outraise Republicans — they just needed to rake in enough cash to get their message sufficiently circulating on the airwaves.
“It’s no secret that the Republicans and their billionaire friends have way more money than we do, so you always have to worry about that money gap,” she said. “We actually don’t have to match their money. We just have to raise enough to communicate with the voters.”
Room for Disagreement
Some Democrats were worried less about their individual candidates or the DCCC’s ability to compete, and more about the Democratic National Committee’s ability to help candidates in tight raises.
The national committee has faced a host of criticism from other Democrats for its lethargic fundraising, including calls for DNC Chair Ken Martin to step down that have so far gone unheeded.
“I’m more worried about the DNC, including the perception of its functionality,” said Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va. “Two million in debt. Other people have all that money.”
The DNC did not return a request for comment.
Nicholas’s view
Money isn’t everything in politics (as recent primary elections have shown), but there’s only so much Democrats can do if a flood of money from Musk and Trump does arrive.
It’s very possible that Democratic donor fatigue sets in and the party might not be able to compete in as many places as it initially hoped — a risk that’s also exacerbated if the party spreads resources too thin across too many races.
The safest and surest bet remains a Democratic takeover of the House in November. Yet Trump has repeatedly proven conventional wisdom wrong. And there’s always a chance his MAGA Inc. money, coupled with redistricting, does that again this year.
Notable
- Elon Musk’s America PAC reported $800,000 in spending for Republican House and Senate candidates in the last two weeks of August, Fox News reported.
- MAGA Inc. recently made its first big general-election commitment, according to a filing release Saturday and covered by Politico: $10 million for Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton.