The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
In today’s edition: Kamala Harris looks to build a durable lead, the Philippines “drug war” between its president and vice president escalates, and Venezuela’s election crisis continues to drag on.
The List
1. US – Run up the score
As the DNC unfolds this week, Kamala Harris will be looking to run up the score in polling before the campaign begins in earnest. With polls showing her around 3 points ahead on average, good vibes from the DNC represent an opportunity to extend the campaign’s lead as much as possible. Democrats remember last-minute Trump surges in the 2016 and 2020 elections that put him past his on-paper polling strength; the more comfortably Kamala leads heading into the traditional post-September sprint to Election Day, the less panicked her party will be as attacks kick into a higher intensity.
2. Germany – East votes
The AfD has taken a hit nationwide, but still sees strong polling in its stronghold of East Germany, with three states holding elections next month. Despite lunging to the extreme and experiencing scandal after scandal, the AfD will look to renew its momentum by proving it can still command support from the voters themselves.. Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia will all go to the polls, and the far-right party has the potential to place first in all of them per the recent polling — even as the states are led by some of the party’s most right-wing figures. The simultaneous rise of another new party, the anti-establishment and “left-conservative” BSW, could make governing a headache.
3. Philippines – Clashes continued
The Philippines’ internal schism has entered a new phase, with the Vice President fending off allegations of her family’s involvement in drug trafficking. A House investigation into the drug trade brought about testimony implicating Duterte-Carpio’s brother and husband, though the Vice President herself called the claims “political harassment” from her enemies in the presidential administration. Duterte-Carpio also declared that she anticipates impeachment proceedings against her. “We don’t see each other anymore, and we don’t talk either,” answered Duterte-Carpio when asked about her interactions with the president.
4. Venezuela – Election rejection
Venezuela’s opposition is not interested in new elections, refuting plans from Brazil and Colombia. As countries in the region search for a solution to Venezuela’s election crisis, members of the national opposition are resolute in their position that they won the presidential election based on tallies they’ve released. However, countries like Brazil and Colombia are attempting to play mediator, and want a “negotiated solution” with possible outcomes including another vote. Maduro has likewise rejected the idea.
5. Cote D’Ivoire – 82-year-old president
Cote D’Ivoire’s party in power is calling for its 82-year-old leader to run for a fourth term in office. Alassane Ouattara has been Cote D’Ivoire’s president since 2011, and is currently on his third presidential term. Cote D’Ivoire legally prohibits presidents from serving more than two terms in office, but legal and constitutional maneuvers allowed Ouattara to run, prompting an opposition boycott for the last election. Ouattara himself hasn’t announced his intentions, but party stalwarts appear to be firmly on board.
6. France – Impeach Macron
Left-wing leader Jean-luc Melenchon is threatening to impeach Macron if his Popular Front’s pick for prime minister doesn’t win support from parliament. Lacking support for his nominee Lucie Castets, Melenchon’s LFI party berated President Emmanuel Macron, saying the blockade against her is an “institutional coup against democracy.” Not all within Melenchon’s alliance agree with impeachment as a solution to the political standstill, as the more moderate Socialist Party is not signing on to the plan.
7. Sri Lanka – Record candidates
Sri Lanka will see its highest number of candidates for president ever, with 39 people running for the top job. A recent political crisis that resulted in the ouster of the former president has created an open field, though a few names stand out in particular. Anura Dissanayake, who leads a party that still employs communist iconography, and Sajith Premadasa, the runner-up in the last presidential vote, are considered front-runners, while incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe will attempt to defend his tenure.
8. Japan – Shrine visits
A top contender for Japan’s LDP leadership election followed in the footsteps of his former prime minister father by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, infamous for honoring war criminals. Shinjiro Koizumi, son of Junichiro Koizumi and an ex-minister for the environment, made a public visit to the shrine just as a party election that will determine the leader of the country is about to unfold. While in office, Junichiro faced international outrage for his appearances at the shrine, which memorializes some of Japan’s worst World War 2-era war criminals. Other potential leadership contenders have also recently visited the shrine.
9. Liechtenstein – Surging right
Liechtenstein is small, but experiencing the same right-wing wave as seen elsewhere in Europe. The Democrats for Liechtenstein run in a lane similar to other nationalist parties in Europe. In fact, they might be familiar to Americans too: in the last election, two of the party’s candidates were open “QAnon” sympathizers. While the DpL only secured around 11% last time, the latest poll gives them more than double that, setting up potential for massive disruption in the principality of less than 40,000 people.