The US military is unprepared to respond to a potential campaign by China to weaken Taiwan by attacking its energy system, a former senior US Navy commander warned.
Relations between the two countries remain tense, but Beijing is reluctant to carry out a direct invasion of the island, which it regards as a renegade province, at the risk of sparking a wider conflict that invites US intervention. But there are other ways for Beijing to undermine Taiwan’s political leadership and public support for independence, and the most obvious — especially following Russia’s disruptions to Ukraine’s energy system over the past few years, a playbook that Beijing has studied closely — is to interrupt its energy supply, Mark Montgomery, a retired Rear Admiral and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish think tank, told journalists this week.
Montgomery recently completed an in-depth study of energy war scenarios in Taiwan, which he shared with President Lai Ching-te during a visit to Taipei this month. About half of Taiwan’s power comes from imported LNG: It would be relatively easy for China to block a handful of these deliveries and sow chaos across Taiwan’s grid, Montgomery said. If that happens, the US Navy could play a role in stewarding LNG ships to safety. But at the moment, Montgomery said, there is no high-level communication between US and Taiwanese naval commanders, and no US training for such a scenario. “We need to practice these kinds of convoy operations,” he said, “mostly to demonstrate to China our willingness to do them.”
