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US inflation data set for scrutiny over tariff impact

Aug 12, 2025, 6:32am EDT
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President Donald Trump holds a board sourced from Bureau of Labour Statistics
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Economists are watching today’s US inflation data release to gauge the impacts of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Tariffs have already started to filter through into higher costs for consumers — June data showed a 0.3% rise in the consumer price index. A Bloomberg survey of economists found that they predicted a similar rise in July.

China and the US extended their trade truce for a further 90 days Monday, avoiding a return to sky-high levies, but Washington is threatening further secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and the Yale Budget Lab estimates that the effective tariff rate is at its highest since 1933. Traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

A chart showing US inflation and interest rates
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