The News
The flow of migrants crossing into the US from Mexico has diminished precipitously. In July, crossings were at their lowest level since late 2020, falling to about a fifth of their peak over the last four years, reached in late 2023.
The steep decline is largely the result of restrictions brought in by the Biden administration to limit migration to the US, and rules to curb crossings enacted in Mexico, too.
Mexico’s so-called “chutes and ladders” system — where Mexican authorities repeatedly move migrants from the northern border to the south — has kept tens of thousands essentially moving in a loop within the country.
“Mexico now functions as a barrier and as a sponge,” a migration expert told The Wall Street Journal.
SIGNALS
Border security could decide the US election
Security at the border ranks high on issues that matter to US voters ahead of the coming election — so much so that it may be the determining factor for who wins the presidency, an expert at the Brookings Institute think tank wrote. A July Gallup poll showed that 55% of Americans want less immigration, the highest percentage since 2001. In the campaigns, Donald Trump has taken a hard line and cited his controversial record as president, while Kamala Harris has been attacked by Republicans for her confusing record on immigration as vice president. However, Harris hasn’t shied away from making border security part of her campaign, promising a humane but firm approach that could ultimately help her politically, NBC News noted.
Crackdown could have economic repercussions
The US economy could have a lot to lose if the crackdown at the border continues, Politico noted. Migration to the US is at least partly to credit for the country’s economic recovery since the pandemic. Job growth in non-farm sectors has largely been driven by immigrant groups, one analysis found, and a congressional agency forecasted that immigrants could boost GDP by $7 trillion in the next decade. Specific industries, like the service sector, restaurants, and construction, rely more on immigrant workers and so would potentially suffer more.
Low numbers may not last
It’s unlikely that crossings will remain low for much longer, The Wall Street Journal wrote. Biden’s executive order has deterred people for now, but it is facing significant legal challenges, and some experts think it’ll be doomed, in the same way a 2018 Trump bill that tried to ban certain migrants was deemed unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Mexico’s system of redistributing migrants within its interior is essentially “putting a cap” on migration without addressing its root causes, which are getting worse, an expert told the BBC. Migration out of Venezuela is largely expected to increase following its contested election, and will likely become a huge challenge for the US in the coming months, the Journal noted.