The US is on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by between 27-41% below 2005 levels by 2040, falling far short of Biden-era emissions goals, a new Rhodium Group report found.
Emissions fell across all scenarios the researchers mapped, despite a boom in electricity demand sparked by AI data center buildout. But changes to climate policies during US President Donald Trump’s second term mean that natural gas and renewable power will compete for dominance through the 2030s, potentially leading to only a 24% drop in emissions in the power sector by 2040, compared with last year, the report found.
A separate analysis by Columbia University found that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act still preserved 74% of planned new clean energy capacity compared to former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. But higher oil and gas production under Trump could see emissions in the sector increase by 15% to 2040. The Biden Administration had targeted a 61% to 66% cut in overall emissions by 2035.