The US Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady at its meeting today, but the path ahead looks unclear as concerns bubble over stubborn levels of inflation.
About three-quarters of futures bets expect no change to the benchmark lending rate and the remainder predict a quarter-point increase; traders expect at least one rate hike — and perhaps as many as four — by year end.
The variance is in part because of a tricky economic picture, as a revival of the US-Iran conflict drives concerns over price rises. But the uncertainty is likely to be welcomed by new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has explicitly stated the Fed under his leadership will eschew providing so-called forward guidance to the markets.