The News
A group engaging political independents across the country is armed with new polling that shows non-affiliated candidates could be viable.
The poll from Brett Loyd of the Bullfinch Group, commissioned for the Independent Center, surveyed voters for Montana’s Senate race, Alaska’s at-large congressional seat, California’s 6th District, Iowa’s 1st District, and Washington’s 1st District.
The Washington district is notable because the seat is held by House Democrats’ campaign chief, Rep. Suzan DelBene, and 78% of voters surveyed there said they disapproved of Congress.
With congressional approval ratings underwater across the races surveyed, the pollsters argue independent candidates have an opportunity to break through. Seth Bodnar, the independent Montana candidate, placed second behind the Republican Kurt Alme in a head-to-head matchup, and in California’s 6th District, Democrat Richard Pan held a small edge over newly independent Rep. Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans.
Know More
The polling memo, which was shared first with Semafor, argues that independent candidates have a unique opening right now with anti-incumbent and anti-establishment sentiment spiking.
“Traditional partisan loyalty is being actively undercut by deep-seated institutional dissatisfaction,” it reads.
In Alaska’s at-large House race, the poll found Republican incumbent Nick Begich leading the first round of balloting; independent candidate Bill Hill was a top second choice, though the poll was conducted before the Democrat dropped out and endorsed Hill.
Independent candidates still face an uphill climb to win without the support of party fundraising and organizing apparatuses, however. The only sitting independents in the Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, both caucus with Democrats. Now-former Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, became independents but had both initially been elected as Democrats.