China’s crude imports have ticked up, but analysts said the rebound was unlikely to signal a return to pre-war levels.
The increase reflects stranded cargoes clearing the Strait of Hormuz and more purchases of Russian oil, “rather than a meaningful improvement in refinery demand,” a Kpler analyst said.
Experts predict only a modest recovery in China’s near-term crude demand, as its buyers historically only replenish stocks when oil is cheap, as well as an electrification push.
Higher fuel prices have prompted motorists to drive less or switch to EVs, while high-speed rail curbed jet fuel demand. “A doomsday scenario” in which Beijing aggressively restores imports, pushing prices higher, “is far from the only endgame,” a Reuters columnist wrote.