The stock market verdict on the Gulf’s war economy is in: Emirati banks are hot, Qatari banks are not. Emirates NBD and First Abu Dhabi Bank are up 8.4% and 5.7% since January, outpacing every major index in the region, with loan books still growing. Emirates NBD’s May bond sale — the first by a Gulf bank since the war began — was also nearly three times oversubscribed, a sign investors see UAE lenders as the region’s safest bet.
Saudi lenders split the difference, with Saudi National Bank ahead of the Tadawul stock exchange, and Alrajhi slightly behind it after digesting higher-than-expected credit costs. The Saudi market is the only index to have risen so far this year, with the kingdom forecasting growth as most of its crude has been diverted to Red Sea ports.
The outlier is Doha: Qatar National Bank has shed 13%, falling twice as much as Qatar’s lagging stock market, a verdict on the lender most exposed to an economy whose gas, goods, and confidence all transit Hormuz.