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President Donald Trump’s party will be lucky to get to the midterms without enduring another government shutdown — forget about any other priority.
There’s still a lot of talk about bipartisan deals in Washington, of course, from cryptocurrency to Russia sanctions to college sports. But the reality this week, as the House leaves Washington until September, is a GOP desperately trying to tamp down its own spiking internal tension and save its congressional majorities.
Republicans are also trying to pass a government funding bill with a stunning two months before the deadline. Yet most of them don’t currently see Democrats as willing to give enough ground to avoid a shutdown, even as Senate Majority Leader John Thune threatens a stressful backup plan of trying to fund the government along party lines.
Passing a clean stopgap funding bill this summer is “a wonderful plan. I’d love to marry it. I’m just saying: I don’t know if it’s a practical plan,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor on Thursday, adding that “the earth’s crust was just cooling” the last time that strategy worked in July.
Democrats have little incentive to help out a Republican Party that’s descending into cross-Capitol sniping at the worst possible time. And after an ugly Congress filled with multiple shutdowns, the House is taking an increasingly confrontational approach toward the Senate.
Just this week, the House passed a funding bill, a bill curbing congressional stock trading with voter ID requirements attached, a defense bill, and a budget bill setting up Iran war funding — before jetting for the summer on Thursday.
With the exception of a similar but bipartisan funding effort, Thune may not move fast on any of those proposals. His conference lacks the votes to pass the budget and Democrats already blocked the Senate’s defense bill.
That has Republicans worried about accomplishing much at all.
“I’m worried about our ability to pass things in general,” Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., told Semafor.
The House is antagonizing Senate Republicans by tacking the voter ID legislation onto many bills to appease hardliners who threatened to obstruct the floor unless GOP leaders did more to advance the Trump-backed legislation.
“Going home and telling the voters: ‘I can’t get this done because of our own rules, that we can change,’ is not a real satisfactory answer. But yes, they’re content to do that,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, R-Okla., said of senators.
But the filibuster isn’t going anywhere, despite Trump’s constant cajoling on social media and in speeches to abolish it. Ditto the voter ID SAVE America Act.
“The Senate just seems to be a place where good ideas are going to die,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla.
Most senators say it’s a math problem. But some harmonize with the House; Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who chairs the conservative Republican Steering Committee, said the Senate shouldn’t leave for its summer break until finishing its work.
The House “passed the CR, they passed the budget resolution, and they passed the SAVE America Act. They did what my mom told me: We had to go clean our house before we got to go play on Saturdays,” Scott said.
The majority leader himself is under attack from Trump over the Senate’s inability to pass the voter ID bill. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Trump is “losing patience” with Thune, as Trump urged rallygoers to call Thune and tell him to kill the filibuster.
Thune initially urged Leavitt to help “get the votes,” though he later said her answer to a reporter’s question was just the “nature of the beast.” The episode left a mark.
“I don’t know who it was that sold the president on [voter ID], that this was attainable. But it’s creating a circular firing squad for Republicans. And here we are, what 103 days before the midterm elections? And this is not a great place for us to be,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
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The focus on a stopgap spending bill comes as more entrepreneurial bipartisan efforts stall. The Senate is only in for two weeks more before August recess, and momentum is fading.
A Russia sanctions bill spearheaded by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is tangled up in a debate over Trump’s tariff powers. The two largest sports conferences don’t support the bipartisan college sports bill.
And a crypto market structure bill is snagged over Democrats’ insistence over ethics rules for the president. Prospects for all three are in serious doubt.
Despite that chilly atmosphere, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, one of Schumer’s top electoral targets, is “optimistic” about a government funding deal. Democrats told Semafor that, contrary to some GOP assumptions, they are open to conversations over addressing government funding in the next two weeks.
“A few who really want to do a clean CR past the election have approached me about it,” said Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. “I’m glad that they’re thinking ahead because clearly, nobody wants a shutdown.”
Yet Democrats have competing priorities.
“I don’t want a shutdown,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va. But his top goal right now: “I want us to be out of an illegal war.”
If Democrats block a stopgap bill, Thune will face plenty of problems with his fallback approach of passing a party-line spending bill to fund some of the government this fall. For starters, a traditional stopgap can’t get through the budget reconciliation process required to do that.
If Republicans pressed ahead with a potpourri of government spending to shore up shuttered agencies, vulnerable incumbents would have to endure two unlimited Senate vote-a-ramas.
But the Senate GOP’s motivation is clear. A shutdown right before the election is a nightmare.
“Once we nail that down, we’d probably turn to reconciliation,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va. “We are not shutting the government down.”
Room for Disagreement
Republicans are caught between a president who is demanding they pull out all the stops to enact voter ID and the institutional consequences of abolishing the filibuster.
“Generally, I support the filibuster rule, but I also support the SAVE America Act,” said Rep. Robert Aderholt, R-Ala. “You may have to make an exception and bypass the filibuster.”
Burgess and Nicholas’ View
The wheels are coming off of this Congress.
Things got off to a surprising bipartisan start after Trump’s inauguration with the passage of the Laken Riley Act and a crypto bill focused on stablecoin. Trump’s approval numbers quickly faded, Democrats started fighting him harder — and slowly but surely, Republicans in the House, Senate, and White House began turning on each other.
After a bipartisan housing bill became law over Trump’s objections, it’s hard to imagine much substance passing before the election. Even a ho-hum CR might take serious muscle to pass, whether it’s next week or right before the shutdown date on Oct. 1.



