The News
Former US president Donald Trump alternated between jokes and allegations about Venezuela and El Salvador in his speech to the Republican National Convention Thursday, which focused heavily on fighting illegal immigration.
In familiar claims, contradicted by local reporting, Trump alleged that crime rates in Venezuela and El Salvador are down because the countries were sending criminals to the US.
“Caracas, Venezuela, really a dangerous place. But not anymore, because in Venezuela, crime is down 72%,” he said. “We will have our next Republican convention in Venezuela because it will be safe. Our cities will be so unsafe we will not be able to have it there.”
While reliable crime numbers are hard to obtain in Venezuela, statistics show violence has been going down — but not at the rate Trump claims. There’s also no evidence that the government is curbing crime by shipping criminals abroad. El Salvador’s strongman leader Nayib Bukele reduced crime dramatically by imprisoning about 2% of the population, making it the country with the highest prison population rate in the world.
In an apparent response to Trump’s remarks, Bukele, who has a friendly relationship with the former US president, posted on X: “Taking the high road.”
SIGNALS
A new Trump mandate could pose a ‘dilemma’ for Bukele
Bukele has worked hard to craft an image that would appeal to Trump, Salvadoran outlet El Faro argued, but he’s also been building a relationship with China, rattling some US conservatives. However, Trump’s friendly relationship with Bukele is unlikely to change during a potential second term. Rather, it could present El Salvador’s president with a “dilemma:” Getting easy funding from China or committing to a Washington that will not consider financing a country “which lacks natural resources and possesses little geopolitical significance,” El Faro wrote. Bukele is known for being an “ideological chameleon,” the outlet noted, so predicting his next move is difficult.
Trump’s claim about Venezuela wasn’t unexpected, but his dig at El Salvador was ‘bizarre’
Trump parroted false claims long perpetuated by US conservatives that Venezuela is exporting its criminals, Venezuelan journalist Tony Frangie Mawad told Semafor. The former president has made similar statements at least three times in speeches and interviews this year, FactCheck.org noted. Violence in the country has gone down in recent years thanks to changes in “criminal dynamics,” and not government measures, according to local nonprofit Observatorio de Violencia. However, Trump’s dig at El Salvador was unexpected: “Especially bizarre given the fact that the two had a good relationship during Trump’s first term and, more to the point, that conservative Republicans have been celebrating Bukele for his recent crackdown on crime,” New Yorker writer Jonathan Blitzer noted on X.
Trump 2.0 likely to crack down on illegal crossings from Latin America, while nurturing economic relationships
Trump’s vision for Latin America is one of growth for the whole continent, his former adviser wrote in Americas Quarterly. Trump previously recognized “the inextricable link between US national security and mutual economic growth,” and a second term may bring a renewed focus on striking mutually beneficial deals with the rest of the region. But when it comes to border control, Trump will likely crack down on illegal crossings and ramp up pressure on Mexico and Latin America to stem the flow of migrants, a professor told El País, even as he continues nurturing relationships with some regional leaders he’s close to, like Argentina’s Javier Milei.