The global market is staring down a glut of natural gas, while the US itself faces a shortfall, according to two new BloombergNEF reports.
As more liquefied natural gas import and export terminals come online in the next few years, the world is building up to an LNG oversupply of more than 100 million tons by 2031, one report forecast. Falling prices will induce some lower-income countries, especially in Asia, to ramp up their buying.
But on the other end of those transactions will very often be the US: According to the second report, provisioning LNG export terminals is now the fastest-growing source of demand for US gas producers — moving so quickly that US gas supply will be in deficit by 2028.
This is a reversal in the established roles that have defined the global gas market in recent years, in which a gas-rich US has been able to shower abundance on an eager world. But it could flip back in the 2030s, the reports conclude, if US gas drilling can increase substantially and LNG adoption in Asia accelerates.