The News
President Donald Trump is taking a decisive new turn in his handling of Russia’s war on Ukraine: He’s talking tougher about Vladimir Putin, considering a punishing sanctions bill, and dislodging a stalled weapons shipment.
Some of Trump’s allies see it as part of his negotiating plan rather than a concrete shift by the president towards Ukraine. But Russia hawks are convinced Trump is migrating in their direction after years of siding with more non-interventionist forces, both within his administration and the Republican Party.
“The president has been a little more forward leaning on pushing back against Vladimir Putin. And I’m really glad to see that, because I think Putin is really just trying to drag this out,” Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, told Semafor.
Putin “is playing the United States. And President Trump realizes that,” Ernst added. “He’s always wanting to give the benefit of the doubt and give peace a chance. But Putin’s not cooperating.”
Republicans in Ernst’s camp have labored to convince Trump that Putin doesn’t want peace with Ukraine and can’t be trusted. Now, as the president considers more forceful action against Russia, his party is sifting through signals of his future direction — even as Trump follows the truism that presidents’ foreign policy rarely conforms to a single identity.
Trump’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, for one, delighted Tehran’s fiercest critics but has stopped short of regime change. And when it comes to Russia, Trump has yet to explicitly and publicly endorse the sanctions bill led by Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., although he says he’s thinking about it and Graham insists he’ll eventually back it.
One person close to the president described Trump’s latest tilt toward hawkishness as something of a coded message to both sides in the conflict: “It’s important for both Putin and Zelenskyy to know: Anything is possible if they don’t relent,” this person told Semafor.
Still, one outcome feels unrealistic even to Republicans who support Ukraine aid — they don’t believe his turn against Putin means that Trump is about to flip on new assistance to Kyiv.
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said most Republicans believe last year’s $61 billion aid package “was probably the last large one” and that Trump’s comments this week show he is “fed up with Putin’s lying … he’s decided definitely who the bad guy is here.”
Trump’s release of withheld weapons for Ukraine is his most concrete step yet, overriding Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s call to pause them. CNN first reported that Hegseth made last week’s call without informing the White House, which enraged Ukraine backers on Capitol Hill.
“It’s the worst possible thing that you could do in Ukraine. That was just an administrative miss. I’m glad to see the president disagrees with Hegseth on it. Hopefully he’ll fix it,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor.
Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson responded that “it’s unfortunate that Senator Tillis would give oxygen to a false narrative peddled by a proven hoaxer,” referring to one of the CNN reporters who published the story.
“We wish him well in his upcoming retirement,” Wilson added of Tillis.
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One Pentagon official said the disconnect in the administration about the paused weapons shipment relates “to the atmosphere at the Pentagon,” arguing that it’s unclear how closely Hegseth collaborates with Elbridge Colby, the Defense Department’s policy chief.
While Hegseth and Colby seem to have similar noninterventionist worldviews on Ukraine, decision-making under Trump “largely ignores established processes,” the official said, leading to faster calls and more “haphazard” situations.
“Even very senior people just do as they are told and only offer advice when directly asked,” the official added, suggesting that “nobody told” Hegseth he had to clear the paused shipment with the White House.
The White House referred Semafor to Trump’s public comments on Ukraine, made Wednesday during a multilateral lunch. Trump confirmed Ukraine is seeking another Patriot air defense system and that his administration is looking into it.
Trump also sidestepped questions about who ordered the munitions pause, after suggesting earlier this week he didn’t know who made the decision.
“I would know if a decision was made; I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact, most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that yet,” Trump said.
The situation is heaping more scrutiny on Colby, whom some in the administration believe is behind the Ukraine pause. He has long argued that the US should shed its security commitments in Europe in order to focus on the threat posed by China.
Colby has “a big voice in formulating” recommendations for Trump, the Pentagon official said, adding that he “is becoming more powerful than any policy undersecretary in recent memory.”
He also has critics inside and outside of the administration. European officials aren’t fans of Colby’s, and pro-Israel hawks looked negatively on his nomination. Nonetheless, he counts significant support from Vice President JD Vance and others aligned with MAGA-centric foreign policy.
The View From Europe
Trump’s new criticism of Putin is eliciting cautious optimism in Ukraine, where officials have repeatedly conveyed to the US president that the Russian leader is unserious about negotiations to end his three-and-a-half year war.
Europeans are also happy with Trump resuming weapons shipments.
“I am always ready to be positively surprised!” said Tomáš Pojar, the Czech national security adviser.
But there’s also a reason for them to worry.
European officials fear that views espoused by the likes of Vance and Colby signal a more permanent move by the Republican Party away from Europe.
“Get him outta there,” another European official told Semafor of Colby.
The View From Democrats
Democrats will need to sign off on Graham’s changes in order to approve the legislation. In an interview Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said he could understand the benefits of some flexibility in imposing those sanctions, either for Trump or a future president.
He was less impressed by the decisionmaking behind the weapons pause.
“Who’s running the show? The White House should be making these decisions. Donald Trump doesn’t seem to know what his secretary of defense is off doing,” Kelly said.
Room for Disagreement
Though Trump is backing away from Putin in public, he’s never specifically projected anger about the paused weapons for Ukraine.
And even if he ultimately supports the strict sanctions authority Congress wants to give him, it’s not clear how he will use it against Putin.
“I have never known Colby to do anything other than try to execute the president and secretary’s vision,” said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration.
“He is not a freelancer. While he may have strong opinions, he is first and foremost a loyal executor of the America First agenda.”
Burgess, Morgan and Shelby’s View
Capitol Hill feels a little bit like Groundhog Day this week, as Graham and Republican leaders once again suggested Russia sanctions could be approved sometime this month — just as they did last month.
Yet Graham says he’s gotten Trump more interested in signing off on the bill, thanks to the addition of waivers giving him more sway over the enforcement of crippling sanctions on Russia’s trading partners.
Speaker Mike Johnson said Washington needs to send Putin “a message” and that he’ll speak to Thune soon about the bill.
In the meantime, Russia hawks on the Hill are paying close attention to previously approved aid to Ukraine.
“Any suggestion on the part of officials in the United States government that we’re not going to provide them with assistance is bad news,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D.
Notable
- Colby’s moves have caught White House officials flat-footed and frustrated US allies, Politico reported.
- The US has a critically low supply of Patriot missile interceptors, the Guardian reported.
Eleanor Mueller contributed to this report.