China does not have the capability to conquer Taiwan, a former commander of US forces in the Pacific wrote in Foreign Affairs, arguing that trends in military technology now favor the island and the US, its main backer.
China’s rapid military modernization has merely brought Beijing’s maritime capabilities to the level of France, Japan, and the UK, Dennis Blair wrote, adding that the PLA is dominated by the army, whose generals show “breathtaking ignorance” of maritime warfare.
Other analysts still see the possibility of war, especially if Beijing gives up hope of making a political deal with Taipei.
For now, China’s more likely strategy to take over Taiwan is to impose a naval blockade or quarantine, forcing a surrender.
