The Scoop
Senate Republicans are about to find out if they can muscle through their sweeping tax cut bill while handling a forced floor vote on President Donald Trump’s Iran strikes.
As Majority Leader John Thune and Trump marshal Republicans to finalize a bill reshaping huge swaths of the US government this week, Democrats and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., are moving to call a vote on Trump’s war powers.
There’s an effort underway to vote on Sen. Tim Kaine’s resolution invoking the War Powers Act — requiring Trump to receive approval for additional action in Iran — before the tax bill comes to the floor later this week, according to three people familiar with the matter.
It’s an unusual intersection of the two issues captivating Washington: Trump’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and his premier piece of domestic legislation. In a week’s time, the Senate may have a verdict on both.
“Every day, you don’t know what’s going to hit you … sometimes it’s like drinking out of a fire hose,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., a member of party leadership, who suggested the Iran conflict could even “accelerate” agreement on the tax cuts bill.
The two-act drama of Washington will play out in the halls of the Senate over the next 24 hours. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., met with Trump on Monday evening as he sells a proposal to scale back the federal share of Medicaid expansion states while the president seeks a “full repeal” of Biden-era energy credits.
And GOP senators gathered on Monday evening to hear the latest on enduring flashpoints with the tax bill and its Medicaid cuts, along with updates on how it has changed to adhere to strict budget rules. The legislation is “still a work in progress,” Sen. John Cornyn told reporters after.
Then on Tuesday, all senators (and House members) will receive classified briefings on Iran. A vote on Kaine’s war powers resolution could occur on Wednesday or Thursday — then the Senate could move to the tax cuts bill, provided Thune has 50 votes. The overarching goal: Finish the Senate’s outstanding business before the July 4 recess.
“They want us to get that bill out,” said Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn. “Never underestimate Trump. Now you see Thune say, ‘We’re not going home.’ Those guys are going to miss their barbecues. When you’re 110 years old, a barbecue’s a big deal.”
Of course, a lot needs to fall into place for Republicans to pass the tax cuts bill and make those holiday barbecues.
To make sure Kaine’s Iran-related resolution doesn’t interrupt Senate consideration of so-called budget reconciliation, all senators need to agree to hold a vote before the war powers measure is officially ready on Friday.
“I’m for whatever Kaine wants, and I think he wants it earlier,” said Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., the No. 2 Senate Democrat.
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There are unlikely to be many Republicans supporting the Kaine resolution other than Paul. Most Republicans will argue Trump already has the authority to strike Iran due to previous authorizations of force.
Paul declined to say how he would vote but was steadfast: “My views have not changed.”
“The power to declare war is given to Congress, exclusively,” Paul added. “The Constitution hasn’t changed, there have always been people who argue the president can do whatever he wants … it’s a recipe for endless war.”
On the Democratic side, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is urging Democrats to back Kaine. There may be a defection or two.
Without saying how he will vote until it’s in front of him, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said he did not believe Trump needed authorization for the strike on Iran but he won’t support Trump’s effort “if he wants boots on the ground or nation-build, no. That’s not what this was ever about for me.”
Thune and Trump will have to stay closely linked throughout. The majority leader said on Monday that the Iran vote would have no bearing on his moves to finish Trump’s tax cut bill.
“External events obviously are something we have to manage too. But I think in terms of timing of the bill we’re still full speed ahead,” Thune said.
Even if Kaine’s proposal passes the Senate, it’s got no path to action in the House, which has tweaked its rules to make it more difficult to bring up privileged resolutions like those on war powers for a vote.
Instead, Republican lawmakers across the Capitol are watching closely how the Senate deals with cuts to Medicaid, state and local tax deductions, and a controversial proposal to sell off public lands.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., is urgently moving to clinch a deal on the House’s $40,000 cap on state and local deductions, which most senators want a lot lower. Asked about the possibility of an agreement, Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., said “the deal we negotiated was the deal” and gave a thumbs down when asked about lowering income limits.
An even bigger problem is hits to rural hospitals from cuts to the provider tax.
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said that to avoid a drag-out grudge match with the House, “leadership has got to come up with some solution here … that the House can pass and that rural hospitals will accept. The rural hospital issue is, I think, the key right now.”
Hawley added that Thune has indicated Scott’s Medicaid proposal won’t be included in the bill.
The Senate is also still sorting through rulings over the weekend that threaten the bill’s filibuster protections: Efforts to defund the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and to shift some SNAP aid to states are among the items getting urgently reworked.
But Republicans see no problem balancing those questions with matters of war and peace.
“I think this actually helps us, in terms of: We need to get our economic policy in place,” said Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb., arguing that passing the tax bill would bring some certainty to the business world amid unrest in the Middle East.