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Exclusive / Divided Montana Senate field helps Republicans

Burgess Everett
Burgess Everett
Congressional Bureau Chief
Jun 18, 2026, 4:22am EDT
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Seth Bodnar
Seth Bodnar in 2025. Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn Images

Democrats and independents are divided between two candidates running against Republican Kurt Alme in Montana’s Senate race, according to a poll first shared with Semafor from Public Opinion Strategies.

The survey, commissioned by The Political Company, shows Alme with a healthy 19-point lead because Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar are splitting the remainder of the vote.

Alme has 44% support, Bankhead receives 25%, and Bodnar has 20%, per the poll. And while Alme’s coalition is composed of mostly Republicans voters, Bankhead is getting more support from liberal Democrats, and Bodnar is strongest with independents and moderate Democrats.

Altogether, the three-way race dynamic gives Alme a significant advantage — and Bankhead called Bodnar “the last person on the face of this earth I would ever drop out of this race for.”

Republicans are also +12 on the generic ballot in the state.

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