The News
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin laid out terms for peace talks and a ceasefire with Ukraine on Friday, saying that to end the war, Kyiv must give up four frontline regions and abandon its attempt to join NATO. Putin also said that Ukraine would need to undergo “denazification” and “demilitarization.”
“As soon as Kyiv says it is ready to do this,” Putin said in a speech in Moscow on Friday, “we will immediately — literally that very minute — cease-fire and begin talks.”
Putin’s terms, the most detailed conditions he has presented for ending the war so far, were immediately rejected by Ukraine, with one advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy describing the remarks as “a complete sham.”
SIGNALS
Putin presents ‘maximalist’ terms
Putin’s ceasefire terms would see Ukraine give up large swathes of territory, and would give Russia a key foothold on the Western bank of the Dnipro river from where it could launch future offensives. “A ceasefire on these terms leaves [Mykolaiv] and [Odessa] undefendable,” one expert wrote on X. “This is not a peace plan but a series of maximalist demands,” prominent Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya argued. “Moscow offers no concessions.” Even pro-Russian commentators appeared to accept that Putin’s terms were unrealistic. “The enemy will not agree to voluntarily surrender regions under his control,” one popular Russian military blogger wrote, adding that Ukraine would only agree to such terms if they are defeated on the battlefield or if Western aid comes to a halt.
Ukraine accuses Putin of trying to derail peace summit
One Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Putin’s remarks were an attempt to derail the Ukraine peace summit which starts in Switzerland on Saturday. Even before Putin’s offer, expectations were low for the talks’ impact given Russia’s lack of participation: “A conference on peace where one party is missing cannot go anywhere,” Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg told Semafor, although he stressed that “it is still necessary, as Russia has shown no willingness to negotiate.” Swiss officials have said the summit will lay the foundation for a “future peace process” involving Russia, and will also focus on issues such as food security, nuclear safety, and the return of children.
Russia’s momentum on the battlefield slows
While Russia made small gains near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, its spring momentum appears to be “stalled,” US officials said. Kharkiv’s mayor said that Russia’s bombardment of Kharkiv has been reduced after the US allowed Ukraine to strike military installations inside Russia that were being used to attack the city. Along the whole front, Ukraine has probably passed “the greatest period of vulnerability,” as US ammunition shipments start to reach the frontline and Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more troops begin to pay off, military analyst Michael Kofman said on the War on the Rocks podcast.