Blinken casts doubt on swift resolution to Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks

Attention is focused on Gaza, but northern Israel has become a hotspot in the fighting as Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has ramped up shelling and sending rockets across the Lebanese border. The situation is at risk of spiraling into another war, the International Crisis Group’s Mairav Zonszein wrote for The New York Times. Stabilizing the north, Zonszein wrote, requires “a conclusive resolution of the conflict in Gaza that Hamas accepts.” Israeli authorities have prioritized defeating Hamas, but Hezbollah has a “far more potent” arsenal and is becoming increasingly advanced. Hezbollah may also be prolonging its provocation to study Israel’s defense capabilities in preparation for war, Zonszein argued.

Yahya Sinwar, a top Hamas leader and negotiator in any ceasefire deal, believes that his group remains strong enough to survive Israel’s attempts to destroy it and ultimately has an upper hand in negotiations, US officials told CNN. That’s a “discouraging assessment” from Washington: It could mean Hamas “doesn’t yet feel sufficient pressure to reach an agreement that would end the fighting — even as Palestinian civilians continue to perish.”

Israel’s offensive in Rafah has continued in the absence of a ceasefire deal, and the militarization of the border city is “jeopardizing” Israel’s decades-long peace treaty with Egypt, according to Al-Monitor. While both Israeli and Egyptian officials are confident the rising tensions will not lead to a full-fledged war between the two countries, they could further complicate ceasefire negotiations. One potential pressure point: Egypt will not let aid trucks pass through the border crossing with Gaza at Rafah until it is not under Israeli control. If Israel let Palestinian authorities take control, that might be “a step in the right direction” to lower tensions with Egypt and, in turn, push Hamas into accepting a ceasefire agreement, Al-Monitor argued.