Oil prices ticked down on Tuesday after Iran and Israel halted mutual attacks, even though there remains little sign of progress toward a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Some oil and gas is filtering out of the Persian Gulf: The UAE’s ADNOC issued two tenders within the last week to sell crude through the strait, an indication that it is managing to get some tankers through, and a fifth Qatari LNG tanker successfully exited the Gulf as well.
Iran’s own efforts to bypass the US blockade of its oil exports have been less successful; US forces disabled one unladen tanker attempting to reach an Iranian port on Monday, and Iran is reportedly deepening its discounts for Chinese refineries. OPEC countries agreed on Sunday to increase production, which could be seen as a sign of confidence in peace talks, but in practice, “the physical impact of such a decision would be close to zero,” Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis Jorge Leon wrote, because of restrictions on tanker movement. In a forecast Tuesday, Barclays analysts said they expect Brent oil prices to stay around $100 per barrel for the remainder of the year, but fall to $88 on average next year.