Russia’s crude oil exports reached an average of 3.46 million barrels a day last month, higher than at any point since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on refineries and export terminals have forced Moscow to halt exports of gasoline and jet fuel, but pushed more crude into the global market at a moment of surging prices, driving export revenues to also reach their highest level since 2022.
But Russian officials were forced to admit this week for the first time that upstream production is falling. And much of the export revenue upside isn’t actually reaching the Kremlin’s coffers, because the limitations on fuel exports have forced the government to pay billions of dollars in compensation to refinery owners.