Semafor Signals
Biden’s Gaza peace pitch may be a matter of ‘political survival’
Insights from Al Jazeera, Al-Monitor, and Haaretz
The News
The US ambassador to the United Nations called on the 15-member UN Security Council to “speak with one voice” in support of President Joe Biden’s proposed ceasefire deal. At least nine council members need to vote in favor, without any vetoes from permanent members, for the resolution to pass.
The deal would see Hamas release Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Members of the G7 club of nations have already backed the deal.
If Biden secures a ceasefire deal, it could boost his bid for a second term as president, analysts said.
SIGNALS
Ceasefire deal could boost Biden’s electoral prospects
Some 44% of registered Democratic voters have said they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. In turn, his ceasefire proposal may be more “about Biden’s political survival now” than the war itself, Al Jazeera anchor Shihab Rattansi said. Biden’s popularity among Arab Americans has dropped to 18%, according to the Arab American Institute, despite being a historically Democratic constituency. His diplomatic credibility is also at stake: Having publicly thrown his weight behind the deal, any Israeli walk-back or refusal to engage would “embarrass” Biden, Vox argued.
The Israeli far-right is trying to block US plans
After the Israeli military confirmed Monday that four hostages held in Gaza were likely killed months ago while its forces were operating in the territory’s southern city of Khan Younis, the hostages’ families forum called on Israel to immediately approve Biden’s new ceasefire plan. But far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, along with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, threatened to bring down the government if Netanyahu does so. Their opposition could ultimately lose them popular support, one columnist for Haaretz wrote, harming the right’s long-term political influence. Separately, Biden told Time magazine there is “every reason for people to draw [the] conclusion” that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own self-preservation.
Security is deteriorating in the West Bank
Two Palestinians were killed in the West Bank on Monday, Israel’s military said. The announcement came as the United Nations human rights office said more than 500 Palestinians in the West Bank have been killed since the war began and that the Israeli Defense Forces had demonstrated “consistent violations of international human rights law” and acted with “pervasive impunity,” Reuters reported. Israel has shown a “chilling disregard” for Palestinian life since the war began, Amnesty International’s director of global research, advocacy, and policy told Al Jazeera.
