Semafor Signals
India exit polls predict Modi on track to win third term
Insights from The Economic Times, NDTV, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and Al Jazeera
The News
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party appear set to secure a historic third term leading India, with exit polls suggesting the BJP is on track to win a majority of seats in the legislature.
Vote-counting will end on Tuesday, three days after the close of polling.
SIGNALS
INDIA coalition fails to oust Modi
The INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc, a coalition of parties that united to challenge Modi’s BJP in the election, is projected to win between 130 and 160 seats in the house. That is a far cry from the 272 seats needed for a majority government — and a much lower figure than the 295 seats INDIA claimed they had won Sunday. INDIA organizers said that if they failed to secure enough seats to form a government, it would be due to “disunity” within the bloc’s top-level politicians, NDTV reported.
Markets rally on likely Modi victory
The Indian stock market hit a record high on Monday after exit polls predicted a landslide victory for Modi. Financial stability was a key pillar of the BJP’s election platform, and investors appear eager to see how the party’s plans for the economy will play out. A Modi victory “gives that continuity and clarity in terms of policy,” Amar Ambani, executive director of YES Securities in Mumbai, told the Financial Times. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 Index rallied by as much as 3.6%, its biggest leap in over three years, and the rupee was Asia’s second-best performing currency on Monday, Bloomberg reported.
Modi’s performance has improved every election
If Modi secures a third term, it would be history-making: No prime minister has ever won three consecutive elections in India. His performance has improved with each election, Al Jazeera noted. “Modi is extraordinarily popular. Everything about this BJP campaign was about Modi for a reason,” Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, told the outlet. The prime minister and his party even made inroads in areas where they have typically underperformed, with projections showing the BJP is on track to gain two to three seats in Kerala, a left-leaning state that has historically snubbed the party.
