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Updated May 31, 2024, 7:14am EDT
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Semafor Signals

How a second Trump presidency could impact global affairs

Insights from Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, Politico

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Former U.S. President Trump speaks to members of the media after a jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts in his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court in New York, New York, U.S., 30 May 2024. Mark Peterson/Pool via REUTERS
Mark Peterson/Pool via REUTERS
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The News

A New York jury found ex-US President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 counts against him in a hush-money trial, marking the first time a former or serving American president has been convicted of a crime.

The Republican frontrunner for November’s presidential election could return to the White House for a second term, and Thursday’s verdict has bolstered his base. Elsewhere, world leaders are preparing for what a second Trump presidency could mean for international politics.

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Coverage about the verdict has plastered North American and European news sites — but it is noticeably absent from some international front pages, including The Times of India, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post, Singapore’s The Strait Times, and The Global Times, a state-affiliated newspaper in China.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

‘America first’ policies could impact world order

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Source:  
Foreign Affairs

Trump reached the White House last time in part due to his “America first” policies, which centered the US in decision-making and deprioritized Washington’s role on the world stage. A second Trump presidency would likely see the same policies enacted again, Hal Brands, a global affairs professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote in Foreign Affairs. “The results would not be pretty,” he wrote. A US-centered foreign policy would also mean a “more vicious and chaotic” world. Countries like Ukraine, which rely heavily on US intervention, would suffer. But the US itself “might not do so badly—at least for a while,” he added.

Israel, Russia could welcome Trump’s return

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Source:  
The Washington Post

Some nations may be eager for Trump to return to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “benefited immensely from Trump’s first term, [and] is arguably hoping for a similar dividend in the event of a second,” The Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor wrote in the paper’s Today’s WorldView newsletter. He’s not the only world leader that would welcome another Trump presidency: Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, would benefit. Trump has previously supported a peace plan between Ukraine and Russia that would cede some territory to Moscow, a key objective of Putin’s. “It would cement the Republican turn away from Europe’s security at a time when Western resolve around Ukraine is flagging,” Tharoor wrote.

Trump allies rush to his defense

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Sources:  
Politico, AFP

Some right-wing politicians in Europe have already thrown their support behind Trump following his guilty verdict. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long a supporter of the former president, called Trump a “man of honour” who “commanded respect around the world and used this respect to build peace.” In Italy, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said that Trump was a “victim of judicial harassment.” Moscow, too, rallied behind Trump: On Friday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the guilty verdict was evidence that the White House is “eliminating its political rivals by all possible legal and illegal means.”

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