Semafor Signals
Trump convicted on all counts in historic hush-money trial
Insights from The New York Times, Politico, and The Washington Post
The News
In a historic moment, Donald Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial, the jury announced early Thursday evening. He’s the first-ever former president to be convicted of a felony crime.
In the case brought by New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office, Trump was charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal damaging information as part of a conspiracy to mislead voters ahead of the 2016 US presidential election. Trump, who is again the Republican forerunner for president, pled not guilty.
The 12-person panel of Manhattan residents took two days to reach the verdict, which had to be unanimous. Trump will be sentenced on July 11 at 10 a.m. Eastern, days before the Republican National Convention begins.
SIGNALS
Trump could serve prison time, but sentence remains unclear
It’s unclear whether Trump will serve any prison time, although he could face as much as four years. Some legal experts say it’s unlikely; The charges are among New York’s least-severe felonies, and he is a first-time offender. But this is an unprecedented case and Judge Merchan has discretion here. “Knowing most judges in New York, they’re going to want to show that no one is above the law,” one said, and to that end, some of Trump’s behavior during the trial might come back to haunt him at sentencing, particularly his gag order violations. Trump will almost certainly appeal the conviction, meaning he would likely remain free until that’s resolved.
Trump’s reaction could swing between martyr and vengeance
Regardless of the verdict, Trump has sought to portray himself as a martyr. Seemingly anticipating a conviction, he told reporters on Wednesday “Mother Teresa could not beat these charges.” If he was acquitted, the Biden administration, and by extension, the courts, persecuted him for political gains and to punish his supporters, a frequent campaign refrain. Before the jury returned its decision, the New York Times predicted Trump would be “angry and vengeful,” citing his behavior following his past impeachments.
It’s not yet clear how or whether the conviction will affect the election
Trump’s conviction could tip the scales in the upcoming presidential election: Polls suggest a fifth of Trump’s current supporters would reconsider or withdraw support if he is convicted of a crime — enough to make a difference in what is expected to be a nail-biter race. But not necessarily. “People are really bad at predicting what is actually going to sway their vote in the end,” ABC News’s senior editor and elections analyst said. “They might say a conviction turns them off Trump a little, but still vote for him in the end.”
