The Scoop
Democrats’ search for more winnable House seats is shining a brighter light on southern California, where internal tension is putting the party at risk of a November lockout.
The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC picked its candidate on Tuesday, endorsing Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar in the 48th District. But Campa-Najjar’s critics, including the liberal former Sen. Barbara Boxer, argue that he’s blocking a more electable candidate.
As the party splits between him and primary foe Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city council member, Campa-Najjar’s allies worry that two Republicans could advance to the general election in a district Kamala Harris narrowly carried.
The Democratic Party’s ongoing battle over how sharply to distance itself from the unpopular Israeli government is a factor in the race. Progressives getting behind Campa-Najjar say that pro-Israel groups spending on von Wilpert’s behalf has backfired.
“If elected, Ammar will be the only Member of Congress who has lived in Gaza, where 30 members of his family, including children, have died,” said the Progressive Caucus PAC co-chairs, Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Greg Casar of Texas, and Maxwell Frost of Florida, in a statement to Semafor. “Ammar is the only candidate campaigning on a progressive agenda in this race.”
Their endorsement came after significant spending in the district by Democratic Majority for Israel on behalf of von Wilpert. The pro-Israel group opposed Campa-Najjar’s postions on the Gaza conflict, but it also worried that he could blow the election for Democrats, citing his shift to the center in 2020.
The Progressive Caucus’ endorsement was unsettling to Boxer, who backs von Wilpert. She contended to Semafor that Campa-Najjar had benefited from his longtime romantic relationship with Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-Calif., whose family has funded a super PAC helping him.
“I will tell you, the only way I think this could have happened is if his significant other, who is a congresswoman, made it happen,” Boxer said. “He has flip-flopped on the major issues they profess to care about: A woman’s right to choose, sensible gun rights, and Medicare for All. I was the Number One liberal in the Senate. I know a phony when I see a phony.”
Campa-Najjar California’s district got redrawn to include parts of Palm Springs in north San Diego County; as a result, it could be harder for Republicans to win. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., retired after voters approved the new district lines.
“As the son of a Palestinian immigrant and a working-class Latina mother, I know what it’s like to grow up having to choose between a gallon of milk and a gallon of gas,” Campa-Najjar told Semafor on Monday, before going to a California Islamic center targeted by a mass shooter to show his support for victims. “I’m a proud progressive.”
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The race in San Diego County has unnerved other Democrats, who saw Issa as easier to beat than a fresh GOP candidate — but aren’t always sure what to think about Campar-Najjar.
In 2018, the first-time Democrat drew considerable media attention despite running in a conservative seat that his party would not be able to win, even after the incumbent was indicted. In 2020, Campa-Najjar ran again and softened his positions on some progressive issues like Medicare for All.
In this campaign, running for the first time in a district drawn to elect a Democrat, Campa-Najjar has returned to running as a progressive — the surest bet to make and win the second round of voting.
Yet on Thursday, SurveyUSA released polling that found a lockout risk rising. San Diego County supervisor Jim Desmond led with 29%, followed by GOP businessman Kevin O’Neil with 10%, followed by Campa-Najjar and van Wilpert, each supported by 9% of voters.
That represented a 3-point decline for Campa-Najjar and a 3-point rise for von Wilpert. Some California political strategists doubted the poll’s accuracy; polling for von Wilpert has been stronger, and she has drawn more support from Democratic Party activists at local conventions.
Von Wilpert’s allies say that the Progressive Caucus’ endorsement misreads what the district wants. In March, when it endorsed her, the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund cited a “growing consensus” among its allies that she was the strongest candidate.
’It’s clear Marni von Wilpert is the strongest candidate in this race to flip this seat and is the only one Californians can trust to stand up to Trump,” said von Wilpert’s campaign manager Jacob Ostacher.
Room for Disagreement
Republicans aren’t paying much heed to the internal division among their opponents because they see a strong chance of winning in November regardless of who prevails.
“It doesn’t matter whether it’s socialist Ammar Campa-Najjar or progressive Marni von Wilpert, California Democrats are in full-blown meltdown mode in CA-48,” said NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez.
“The two of them are locked in a nasty race to the far left,” he added, “clawing at each other while voters get a front-row seat to the chaos, extremism, and dysfunction consuming today’s Democrat Party that has driven up the cost of living, made communities less safe, and pushed hardworking Californians to pack up and leave the state.”
David’s view
Campa-Najjar’s ongoing struggle to win an election — he also narrowly lost a 2022 mayoral race in Chula Vista — has won him Democratic allies who can imagine him being influential. The negative campaign Republicans ran to beat him in 2018 became notorious among Muslim Democratic donors for invoking his grandfather’s radical history to suggest he was trying to “infiltrate” Congress as a potential terrorist.
But Von Wilpert had more success this year in winning over local Democratic activists, especially in the new precincts that had never seen Campa-Najjar on the ballot. His fundraising has declined from quarter to quarter as she campaigned, and her allies are dismissing the progressives’ intervention outright.
It’s Democratic feuds like this that make House Republicans suddenly optimistic about their chances of hanging on in November.
Notable
- Politico’s Ben Fox reported from the ground on Democratic angst about winning the new seat. “California’s 48th is one of two challenging pickups for Democrats in a state they otherwise dominate.”
- The Cook Political Report moved the district toward Democrats after Issa retired, but it’ll matter who wins the primary.
- Semafor’s Nicholas Wu previously covered the fight between the top Democrats.