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Marjorie Taylor Greene passed on a Senate race, but she could still make things awkward for President Donald Trump.
The MAGA-friendly congresswoman and Georgia’s lieutenant governor, Burt Jones, are both potential candidates to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Brian Kemp in the state’s critical gubernatorial race. Greene and Jones are also both staunch Trump loyalists, but only one’s likely to get his endorsement (especially since they don’t share a first name).
Whoever does get Trump’s nod is poised to clear the field. But that prospect isn’t phasing Greene, even after a report that Trump presented her with poll numbers showing she’d fare poorly against Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.
“I don’t make my decisions that way,” she told Semafor when asked about the value of locking down Trump’s support, if she runs. “I didn’t have the president’s endorsement the first time I ran, and I beat eight men in the primary and a neurosurgeon in the runoff.”
Yet a Greene-Jones gubernatorial primary could devolve into the sort of internal infighting that both the president and Kemp — who are trying to put aside their previous divisions — want to avoid. Deciding between the two “could create a challenging situation for Trump, for sure,” said one party operative.
What’s more, Greene’s presence on a statewide ballot could have potentially dramatic implications for Republicans who are trying to turn Georgia back to solid red status next year and hang onto both chambers of Congress.
Though she insisted she hasn’t made a decision, she argued that her national profile as an outspoken MAGA favorite would give her a clear advantage over less recognized candidates.
“All the polling shows I blow out a primary for governor or Senate,” Greene told reporters after bowing out of the Senate hunt. “I think it’s smart for me to consider that, having so much support in the state of Georgia.”
Even if Greene cruises in a primary, however, some in her own party are squeamish about her prospects of winning a general election given her occasionally polarizing rhetoric and willingness to spar with fellow Republicans. Just this week, New York GOP Rep. Mike Lawler posted on X recalling Greene’s pre-Congress flirtation with an anti-Semitic trope.
Another GOP operative told Semafor that “I still think she would have significant liabilities in the general election,” but added that Greene has an unappreciated talent for using situations to her ultimate political advantage: “If people underestimate her ability to possibly leverage this for something, then I think they’re underestimating her.”
Jones has a lower profile than his potential rival but won favor among Trump allies for his role as an alternate elector trying to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 win. And pro-Trump Republicans are already choosing sides.
“Burt is a good guy — well thought of in MAGA,” OANN host and former congressman Matt Gaetz told Semafor. “He should find an ambition that he doesn’t share with MTG, and I’m sure he will find lots of support.”
Jones’ spokesperson didn’t directly respond to a request for comment.
There’s another candidate already in the Georgia gubernatorial field: state attorney general Chris Carr, who announced his bid in November. A third possible candidate is Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s outgoing secretary of state, known for his tense relationship with Trump after the president sought his help challenging the 2020 election.
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It’s already clear that the president will play an outsized role in shaping the 2026 primaries. In Georgia, where Republicans lost two Senate seats in 2020 that flipped control to Democrats, they want to retake Ossoff’s seat and hold on to the governor’s mansion.
And Democrats are licking their chops at Greene, who could make the election far more winnable for them and supercharge their fundraising. The campaign manager for Democratic state Sen. Jason Esteves, a gubernatorial candidate called Greene “unfit to hold public office” but “perfectly suited to lose a statewide race.”
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Michael Thurmond are also seen as likely to throw their hats into the race. There are reports of a long-shot bid from twice-defeated Stacey Abrams as well.
Trump’s already making amends with Kemp, who also passed on a Senate run, to unite their respective political apparatuses. Trump and Kemp agreed they “want to be on the same page” during a meeting last weekend at Mar-a-Lago, according to a source familiar with it, who added that “the focus right now is more on the Senate race.”
The Georgia Senate race promises to be one of the most expensive races in the country. That high price tag would also direct extra national attention to the governor’s race, making Trump’s thumbs-up even more valuable.
“I think the President’s endorsement today is stronger than it ever has been,” Trump’s former political director Rep. Brian Jack, R-Ga. told Semafor.
No public polling is available to show how Greene would fare in a run for governor, but she outpaced some of her congressional colleagues who are still looking to challenge Ossoff in a potential Senate matchup. Polling suggests she would have had a tougher run in a Senate general election.
Kadia’s view
I haven’t gotten the sense that Greene is rushing out of DC just yet. But the mere prospect of her gubernatorial candidacy is animating her GOP skeptics in private and Democrats in public — although they haven’t agreed on their own leading candidate.
But Greene may opt to stay in the House and keep trying to recruit like-minded candidates who would further reshape the GOP conference in her pugnacious image.
We saw a glimpse of that sort of effort from Gaetz, who rallied behind Rep. Harriet Hageman, R-Wyo., to oust former Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022.
Room for Disagreement
Some Republicans bristled at any attempt to dismiss the viability of Greene’s possible candidacy for governor, Trump endorsement or not.
The second party operative warned all Republicans “to be careful” about downplaying her chances of winning a statewide election.
“I don’t know that she has a burning desire to run for statewide office, but the quickest way to get her in a statewide office is to tell her she can’t do something,” this operative told Semafor.
Notable
- Greene bowed out of the Senate race in a 1,600-word screed lashing out at campaign committees. pollsters and consultants, per The New York Times.
- Greene claimed the Trump administration is losing its base because of its foreign policy decisions, Newsweek reported.
- Jones said recently that he plans to announce a bid in the “near future,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.