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Democrats look like they’re headed to another presidential primary dogpile in 2028, whether they want it or not.
“I feel it in the air,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., who joined the 2020 primary — as a governor — and wants it “official” that he’s not running this time.
He hopes, in fact, that the party can winnow down its field to six to eight candidates over the next two-and-a-half years. That would avoid a replay of what he called the “ridiculous adventure” of 2020, when more than two dozen Democrats ended up seeking the nomination.
But even as Democrats prepare for next year’s midterms, the already-crowded stage looks set for a 2020 replay. Some contenders are playing coy about it. Few are ruling it out.
And a party that’s plainly addicted to nominating senators and ex-senators — 1940 was the last year Democrats ran a ticket without at least a running mate of senatorial heritage — may end up doing the same in 2028.
At least a half-dozen senators are now viewed as potential 2028 candidates by their colleagues and top Democrats on Capitol Hill, a mix of new faces and familiar ones.
“How many presidential candidates can you fit in one caucus room? I don’t know,” Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., told Semafor.
He’s acknowledged considering the idea, but he said the ultimate number of Senate Democratic presidential aspirants is “entirely dependent on where the country is, and who has a chance to win. You’ll probably have to ask me in about a year and half.”
Other Democratic senators seen as potential presidential candidates include Mark Kelly of Arizona, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Raphael Warnock of Georgia. If Jon Ossoff wins reelection next year, don’t be surprised if he gets some buzz, too.
There’s also a host of other big names on the gubernatorial side: Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and 2024 vice presidential nominee Tim Walz in Minnesota.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, also a former senator, may run for governor of California — but she could also take another shot at the presidential race.
Don’t forget the House, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as well as people who aren’t on anyone’s radar yet.
But replicating 2020 presents its fair share of risks for a party that’s still grappling with the fallout from the reelection decision by the winner of that primary, former President Joe Biden.
Democrats are sorting through a lot right now: their handling of Biden’s disastrous 2024 campaign, how to resist President Donald Trump’s agenda, and whether to compromise with Republicans on anything at all.
And for any party trying to emerge from the wilderness, there’s a debate about electability.
It’s enough to guarantee the struggles for airtime and effectiveness that tend to come with a big primary field.
In 2020, seven senators joined a heap of governors, mayors and House members, most of whom faded fast. Worries about Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ electability and Biden’s age enticed last-minute entries from two billionaires, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg, who broke spending records to win almost nothing.
Republicans had their own electability debate after Trump lost in 2020, only to end back up where they started in 2024 — and then win. Democrats are thinking harder about what sorts of candidates voters will respond to, though Hickenlooper deadpanned: “Who the hell knows what they want?”
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Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., has an idea of what voters will respond to: “It’s the year of the governor,” he said.
“There’s a lot of people who could legitimately run, including several senators … gut sense is somebody out of Washington, somebody with different experience has a better lead on the runway,” Welch added.
Democratic governors have notched more wins against Trump than their counterparts on the Hill. They have also dominated the early conversation in states that expect to hold the first primaries and can attack a “broken Washington” with aplomb.
One governor who’s already hit an early state, Pritzker, declined to favor any particular background in a nominee during a recent interview with Semafor, citing “empathy, kindness, toughness” as top attributes for a nominee.
He added: “I think having executive experience seems like it would be very important.”
Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., would only allow that governors are “just as well-positioned as members of Congress.”
“There’s talented women and men in the Senate that should be considered,” Durbin said. “I think it’s healthy [to have lots of candidates]. I wouldn’t go overboard.”
Burgess and David’s View
Democrats who tell you it’s too early for them to think about 2028 are being cagey. It’s on many of their minds, even though only a few will admit it.
That’s in part because many in the party are kicking themselves for the two elections Trump won. Democrats regretted their decision to rally early around Hillary Clinton in 2016; now they regret that Biden sought reelection last year with no serious primary challenger.
We’re not sure whether the senator vs. governor argument will play out that directly. But if we had to guess, you’re going to end up with at least one senator on the ticket of a party that likes to put TWO of them on (Obama and Biden, John Kerry and John Edwards).
There have been surges of interest around Booker after he broke the Senate record for longest speech; around AOC as she and Sanders held the year’s largest rallies; and around Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, for commanding news cycles with quips.
But there is no frontrunner, and not even real clarity on which state will hold the first primary.
Pritzker’s recent New Hampshire trip and Pete Buttigieg’s town hall in Iowa suggested that the DNC might push South Carolina back down the calendar, after it was scheduled first to help Biden ward off a challenger. Yet Walz and Moore will both speak at the South Carolina Democratic Party’s convention and fundraisers at the end of this month.
As for Gallego’s visit to Pennsylvania? One Democratic senator, when we asked why the party can’t stop nominating senators and ex-senators, replied: “We tend to view members of Congress more favorably than Republicans.”
That same senator told us you might as well consider the Keystone State the new Iowa. If candidates don’t hit in Pennsylvania, they might as well not run.
Room for Disagreement
Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., said that most of her colleagues are being careful not to overtly position themselves for a presidential run and that their sole focus is — and should be — the midterms.
“We’re, what, 120 days into this terrible administration? I think people are showing good judgment,” she said.
Kelly agreed: “I’m not spending a ton of time thinking about who our nominee is going to be in 2028,” he said. “We’ve got bigger problems right now.”
Elana Schor contributed.