The News
Another populist independent is running for Congress in Nebraska: Austin Ahlman, a 28-year-old progressive journalist and Nebraska native is challenging Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., and Democrat Chris Backemeyer, a former deputy assistant secretary of State who worked for the Biden administration.
Unlike Dan Osborn, the independent candidate for Senate, Ahlman doesn’t want or expect the Democratic nominee to drop out of his race —a dynamic that will require Ahman’s campaign to catch fire to pull off an upset victory, or complicate Democrats’ plans if they go after the seat.
Donald Trump carried the district by 13 points in 2024, but a recent poll by Zenith Research found Osborn carrying the district and Flood’s support in the mid-40s.
“I do not think that somebody with that particular background is going to connect with people in the same way as me,” Ahlman said of Backemyer, noting his own upbringing as a “son of meat packers.”
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David’s view
When Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., called for “working class” populists to run against Republicans this year, the model was Osborn, who convinced Democrats to avoid his race, reducing the risk of a split in the anti-incumbent vote. Ahlman, whose campaign is not part of the Sanders project, argues that his anti-monopolist politics have a bigger constituency than the cautious Democratic Party.
Ahlman points to an initial campaign poll to back him up: In head-to-head tests, Ahlman led Flood by 4 points, while the Democrat trailed by 12. (Neither candidate led Flood before biographies were read.) “The Democrat can’t win, but the independent has a path to victory,” pollster Adam Carlson told me.
But Ahlman isn’t only running against Flood, he’s entering a three-way race, and according to the same poll, when participants heard positive bios of each candidate, the Republican got 42%, the independent 28% and the Democrat 24%.
Democrats have won the House before without winning Nebraska’s 1st District, which is not on their target list. In dark red states, they do generally agree that independents might be able to compete for voters who hate their brand, especially non-Democrats with military experience. Ahlman, who has never run for office before, is running on the “Neo-Brandeisian” theory endorsed by the think tank Open Markets, where Ahlman worked, that there is a majority constituency for populist anti-corporate politics without liberal cultural politics.
“We are going to break up the corporations that are taking away people’s power and making it so they can’t afford to live,” Ahlman told me.
Ahlman needs to collect 2,000 signatures by the start of August to run.