Kenya’s government tries to control the narrative on finance bill to avoid fresh protests

General negative sentiment against Ruto’s administration remains palpable, as was exemplified by the hurling of a shoe at him in a recent rally. High unemployment, corruption, and slowed economic growth are among key drivers of the frustration. According to new data from the country’s statistics bureau, the country’s real GDP growth rate fell from 5.7% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024.

The new messaging is supposed to amplify the government’s “no new taxes” commitment and portray the administration as a listening government, in stark contrast to its perceived confrontational stance last year. Dennis Itumbi, a long-time Ruto digital strategist and the current head of presidential special projects, is coordinating the process on the digital front. An analysis by Semafor of recent hashtags on X, such as #BoldRuto and #NoNewTaxes2025, pointed to a coordinated effort to influence public opinion on the bill.

Dennis Chiruba, a tax lawyer based in Nairobi said taxpayer friendly measures and incentives for businesses contained in the bill “may be outweighed by provisions that could increase the cost of doing business in some sectors.” He said that the bill focuses on broadening the tax base “rather than introducing overt new taxes.”

Chiruba described the government’s strategy as “more measured and administrative” compared to 2024.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi last Monday participated in a televised town hall meeting focused on the bill, and repeatedly asserted that they were keen on easing the burden on taxpayers. “Kenyans are demanding accountability,” he said

Itumbi and government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

This year’s draft bill proposes a raft of notable changes, including longer timelines for tax refunds and a shifting of several goods from zero-rated VAT to VAT exempt — a move that is likely to drive an increase in the cost of goods according to analysts.

Another controversial provision is one that would allow the tax agency access to data held by businesses without a court order — meant to enable real-time monitoring of transactions and an expansion of the tax base.

Before it can become law, the bill needs to go through stages including debates in parliament and public participation over the next several weeks.

In addition to frustrations over the state of the economy, discontent has been mounting over the lack of accountability for many of the perpetrators of the killings in last year’s protests, although the administration argues that investigations are at different stages.

Unemployment, corruption, the cost of living, recent policies including mandatory deductions for a new health scheme, and a housing levy make for an unpopular government, and this current administration is feeling the heat.

The scale of the unrest was unexpected by the Ruto-led administration when it introduced the Finance Bill 2024. Furious protesters breached Parliament on the day MPs passed the bill. And even after Ruto acquiesced by withdrawing the bill and reconstituting his cabinet, calls for his resignation continue to feature heavily in Kenya’s political discourse.

Ruto will undoubtedly be keen on ensuring the situation does not recur with this year’s bill. This explains the change of tack in both the contents of the bill itself and how it is communicated.

John Wafula, an activist with the Bunge la Mwananchi civic education group, described the government’s Finance Bill plans as “a band-aid that cannot fix their unpopularity.”

“People are tired, this administration cannot cast itself as a listening government when no one has been held accountable for the police killings. The victims’ families have not received compensation despite Ruto’s promises. And the economy is not doing well,” he said. “The government knows that it is unpopular, hence the approach, but it won’t make much difference in public sentiment.”