The Trump campaign contemplates a jail sentence

On Monday, the judge presiding over Donald Trump’s New York trial once again warned — this time face-to-face — that he could face jail time if he continues to violate a gag order. It’s a scenario that Trump’s presidential campaign has already been discussing.

“Over the past couple of months, everybody has come to the realization that [it’s a possibility], and thought about what must be done,” one person close to the campaign noted. “These are all professionals.”

Alternative punishments, like home confinement, have also been discussed by Trump’s team, given both the logistical questions that jail poses and the judge’s own admitted reluctance in issuing such a decision. Only one thing is clear: Trump would take the lead in messaging, just as he has throughout the trial.

What, exactly, the playbook would look like if Trump actually goes to jail remains to be seen. But, based on the tactics currently being deployed by the campaign, it would almost certainly include a ramp-up of fundraising messages, surrogates arguing Trump’s side in the media, and a heightened focus on claims that the case is politically motivated — in fact, some of Trump’s aides believe that any sort of further restrictions, whether it be jail or home confinement, would clearly serve as further proof of their core argument that the trial is “election interference.”

That’s not to say Trump wants to go to jail, contrary to speculation — admittedly fueled by Trump himself, who has said that going to jail over the gag order would be a “great honor” akin to Nelson Mandela’s imprisonment — suggesting otherwise. His lawyers, meanwhile, would prefer he simply stay quiet, though they recognize the unique situation of having a client who is running for president and constantly surrounded by the press.

But Trump is unlikely to remain silent, making the possibility of punishment beyond fines all the more likely — regardless of how much the judge would like to avoid it.

Trump and his team have continued to argue that the gag order is unconstitutional: After Monday’s ruling — his 10th violation — Trump spokesman Steven Cheung argued that Trump had “not violated this wrongful edict” and accused Judge Juan Merchan of being “a partisan operative.”

“The threat to throw in jail the 45th President of the United States and the leading candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election for exercising his First Amendment rights is a Third World Authoritarian tactic typical of Crooked Joe Biden and his comrades,” Cheung said.

• While an actual conviction could mean bad news for Trump in the polls, so far the trial itself isn’t really making a dent in his support, according to a recent FiveThirtyEight analysis.
• The Secret Service has had a meeting about how to handle the possibility that Trump could be put in jail, The New York Times recently reported. But that conversation focused on a short-term jailing as a result of contempt, and it remains unclear how, exactly, they’d handle a conviction where he’s sentenced to prison time.