Semafor Signals
Supported by
Brazil’s deadly floods represent the country’s ‘Katrina moment’
Insights from Al Jazeera, Associated Press, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
The News
Brazil’s “worst disaster” in the last 80 years has left more than 100 people dead and some 160,000 people displaced by catastrophic flooding. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul received more than 70 percent of all the rain it typically has in April in the space of four days.
The torrential rains have destroyed key infrastructure, including water treatment plants, roads, and power lines, leaving thousands without power and waiting to be rescued from the water.
The rain isn’t stopping however, as Brazil faces a “Katrina moment,” one analyst told Bloomberg that could impact President Lula da Silva’s government as the 2005 hurricane did George W. Bush. The government has unveiled a $9.9 billion relief package. It includes programs to help rural communities and flood victims, and officials are working on a debt relief proposal for Rio Grande do Sul’s reconstruction. Meanwhile, to aid emergency responders, tech mogul Elon Musk promised to donate Starlink terminals so they could access the internet.
The floods are the latest consequence of a global spate of extreme rain events that have also recently hit Indonesia, Kenya, and Dubai. Experts point to climate change and this year’s juiced El Niño-La Niña weather pattern as the likely driver — with deadly consequences.
SIGNALS
Climate change is juicing natural weather patterns
Brazil’s unrelenting rain is being driven by a climate phenomenon known as El Niño, a periodic event that sees surface ocean water warm up, spurring storms and rain in the southern hemisphere. Climatologists say the floods are evidence of a “disastrous cocktail” made up of human-caused global warming and more typical El Niño weather effects. Brazil has recently endured months of extreme drought and a deadly cyclone; Ane Alencar, science director for the Amazon Environmental Research Institute, told the Associated Press last year that the oscillating pattern of extreme drought-extreme rain was likely “the new normal.”
Floods worsen ongoing humanitarian and environmental crises
Brazil is not alone in this: Extreme flooding has affected countries around the world, and especially in east Africa. An El Niño-intensified Cyclone Hidaya has caused deadly floods in Kenya and Tanzania, a “stark reminder of the human cost of the climate crisis,” Greenpeace Africa’s executive director said. Thousands of refugees in Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camps have been displaced by the rising water levels. “Many people here who are now displaced still don’t have anywhere to go, some don’t even have food,” Joseph Ndung’u, a resident of Mathare, Nairobi, recently told Semafor Africa.
Climate patterns have become harder to predict
The changing El Niño and La Niña climate cycle adds “another degree of complexity” for understanding how climate change will affect future weather patterns, according to research by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Scientists predict these extremes may “become even stronger than they are today,” and that El Niño-like events could double in frequency by the end of the century. Ultimately, experts say many countries — and especially developing nations most vulnerable to climate change — are ill-prepared. Around 40 to 50 million people are currently affected by the weather pattern in 16 countries, according to the United Nations. The UN Climate Crisis Coordinator for the El Niño/La Niña Response, said “action needs to happen now to support them.”
