Anti-incumbency trend falters as ‘Trump effect’ shapes global elections

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decisive victory over a conservative party that had seemed to be surging in the polls showed how Donald Trump’s derision toward US allies has hindered the global right, analysts said. A recent poll found two-thirds of Australians believe the US can’t be trusted as a security ally, up from 39% last June, reflecting a “fundamental change of worldview.” Conservative populism and anti-incumbent sentiment were on the rise globally heading into this year, but Canada and Australia’s elections signal a “revival of social democratic politics,” possibly breathing life into center-left coalitions, a Sydney Morning Herald journalist wrote. Conservatives’ embrace of MAGA-style policies equated to a “booby trap,” with voters opting for stability — both economical and geopolitical.

Voters chose stability in Singapore, too, where the ruling People’s Action Party dramatically increased its share of the popular vote. Their win was a foregone conclusion — the PAP has been in power since 1959 — but experts said economic anxiety could pose some challenges for the party. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong cast himself as best suited to navigate the trade-dependent city-state through uncertain times, and his landslide win showed that “voters listened intently,” a Straits Times commentator argued: “Singaporeans opted for the familiar party they felt they could repose their trust in.” In a moment when the “external threats are so salient and so dramatic,” voters are “more conscious of the fact that the world is a difficult and sometimes ugly place,” a Singapore politics expert argued.

Donald Trump loomed so large in Australia’s election that the perceived threat from China “hardly figured” in the campaign. Beijing is expanding its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, but Australia’s election candidates were “incredibly skilled at virtually keeping all of this stuff off the agenda,” one expert said. Diplomacy with Beijing — and the trajectory of China’s trade war with the US — will nonetheless be high on the agenda for both Australia and trade hub Singapore. Having kept a close relationship with Washington and Beijing for years, the island nation is caught in the middle of the superpowers’ escalating conflict. Asked last month whether China will emerge as a stronger player, Singapore’s foreign minister said: “At a superficial level, the answer is probably yes.”