US will no longer ‘fly around the world’ to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war

With US officials warning that they are preparing to back away from negotiations, the future of Washington’s engagement with Kyiv and Moscow remains unclear. The US has said sanctions on Russia will remain in place and administration officials have reportedly prepared a set of options for ratcheting up economic pressure on Russia. Some officials have long believed that successfully negotiating a minerals deal with Ukraine would provide them with the political cover to increase support for Kyiv, a person familiar with the matter told Semafor. But uncertainty persists about what options US President Donald Trump will ultimately choose, and White House officials remain divided about the path forwards, Politico reported.

In Moscow, fears are growing that the minerals deal signed earlier this week — as well as a successful sitdown between Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican — will spur improving ties between Kyiv and Washington. The deal “worsens the situation for Russia,” a Kremlin-connected political analyst told The Washington Post: “A key reason for tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy has been removed.” The Kremlin still has “a residual concern that Trump might actually at some point turn against them,” Russia expert Keir Giles told Times Radio. To keep courting Trump, Russian officials have reportedly floated ideas ranging from a rare earths deal to assisting Washington’s diplomatic efforts with Iran, and even a possible Trump Tower in Moscow, The Moscow Times reported.

Both Russia and Ukraine have floated the prospects of direct negotiations, raising the prospects that peace talks could continue even if Washington walks away. “America is trying to mediate,” a Kremlin spokesperson said, but “a peace agreement should be signed with Ukraine, not with America.” Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has said he is willing to negotiate directly with the Kremlin if Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, a significant shift in tone by the Ukrainian leader. “Kyiv and Moscow can do things like prisoner exchanges,” Kurt Volker, former US envoy to Ukraine told Semafor, “but not an actual peace agreement, because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to win, and there’s nothing Ukrainians can do to negotiate Putin away from that position. Putin actually has to feel pressure economically and on the battlefield.”