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Semafor Signals

Ukrainian forces forced to retreat from part of eastern front

Insights from Politico and the Institute for the Study of War

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Apr 29, 2024, 10:23am EDT
securityEurope
Members of the company tactical group “Steppe Wolves” of the Voluntary Formation of the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Community disassemble a shell for a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system to convert it for use with a handmade small MLRS for firing toward Russian troops, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 26, 2024. REUTERS/Stringer
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The News

Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat from three towns on the eastern front, where Russia’s military is carrying out an assault on the entire 620-mile frontline. Russian troops are encroaching on the town of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian military hub.

Kyiv is awaiting aid from the US, which recently voted in favor of a massive package that could resolve some of the Ukrainian military’s shortcomings.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Ukraine says supply shortages caused retreat

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Source:  
Politico

Ukraine’s new military commander-in-chief wrote on Telegram that a shortage of military supplies prompted his troops’ withdrawal from the eastern front, adding that Russian forces are better equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has echoed the concerns, saying that a lack of supplies coming from Western allies has hampered Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia. About $60 billion in US aid will soon arrive in Kyiv — but some Biden administration officials and lawmakers have questioned whether more weapons from Washington will be enough to help Ukraine win the war or temporarily ward Russia off. One US official told Politico that the “immediate goal” is to stem losses and give Ukraine back some momentum, after which the goal is to help regain territory. Will they have what they need to win? Ultimately, yes. But it’s not a guarantee that they will,” the official said.

Despite withdrawals, Russian troops unlikely to get strong foothold

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Source:  
Institute for the Study of War

Despite the Russian forces’ advancements along the eastern front, it is unlikely that troops will immediately make significant inroads in the area, the Institute for the Study of War noted in an assessment Sunday. Ukraine’s “withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains,” and owing to Ukrainian reinforcements, Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term,” the ISW wrote. Meanwhile, the Russian military may try to make a push towards Pokrovsk, “because there may be greater opportunities for tactical gains in the area west of Avdiivka than towards the north,” the report said.

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