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Israel set to invade Rafah as Egypt fears influx of refugees
Insights from Foreign Affairs, Times of Israel, and The Wall Street Journal
The News
Israel is preparing to defy widespread international opposition to carry out a military offensive in Rafah, a city in southern Gaza that Israeli officials say is the last remaining stronghold for Hamas militants.
A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Reuters that Israel is “moving ahead” with a ground operation in the south of the conflict-ravaged enclave, despite Rafah being a refuge for more than half of Gaza’s population seeking shelter from violence.
More than a million Gazans have fled to the city since the start of the conflict, leading to concerns that an offensive could lead to extensive civilian casualties. “We cannot support a major military operation in Rafah,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week, citing the difficulties of protecting civilians.
Egyptian officials met Wednesday with Israeli officials to discuss the possible operation, raising concerns that an offensive would cause thousands of Palestinians to flee across the border into Egypt, Axios reported.
SIGNALS
Israel believes attacking Rafah is key to destroying Hamas
Israeli officials have long stressed the need to attack Rafah, the only corner of Gaza not to have seen aggressive ground combat, saying that a military operation is necessary for a “total victory” over Hamas. “If there is no Israeli attack on Rafah, Hamas will survive,” Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote for Foreign Affairs, citing the need to destroy the militant group’s remaining battalions and leadership. Israeli officials told The Times of Israel on Wednesday that Israel will start evacuating civilians shortly as the first stage of the operation. Satellite images have shown tents being set up close to Rafah, but the humanitarian zones around the Gaza Strip’s southernmost city are already overflowing with displaced Palestinians, The New York Times reported. “Where do these million people go?” a former Palestinian Authority official asked.
Rafah offensive could imperil Israel’s alliances
Israel’s allies in the Middle East and the West have become increasingly vocal in their opposition to a full-scale attack on Rafah. US officials have repeatedly pushed for more targeted operations in the city to avoid the kind of full-scale urban warfare that has led to heavy civilian casualties in Gaza. Unless Israel can limit the number of civilian deaths, “this could be a grand strategic disaster for Israel and create one of the leading stressors on the bilateral relationship that we’ve seen for years,” Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told The Wall Street Journal. Egyptian officials have also warned that if Israeli troops enter Rafah, the peace treaty between the two countries could be suspended, the WSJ reported.
