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US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett shrugged off concerns Tuesday the war in Iran could send the world into a recession if it lasts the rest of the year.
“We certainly don’t expect this to take anywhere as long as the speculation of [Citadel CEO] Ken [Griffin],” Hassett said at Semafor World Economy. Griffin had warned earlier Tuesday of a global downturn should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for “the next six to 12 months.”
“But the fact is that it’s not the 1970s anymore; there’s a whole academic literature that suggests that the whole global economy is more resilient than it used to be,” Hassett continued. He pointed to a 2007 paper comparing oil shocks of the 2000s to those of the 1970s.
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Hassett also insisted Tuesday that recent economic trends would not have any bearing on midterm elections.
“Right now, I guess the question is, are we confident that the economy is going to be strong this year? And we really are, because we have so many positive effects that we’re seeing in the data,” Hassett said. He argued that orders outnumbering shipments and an increase in hours worked reinforced his prediction that US GDP could grow between 4 and 5% this year.
“I’m not a political consultant; I’m an economist,” Hassett said later. “We’re making an enormous amount of progress,” including on core inflation, which excludes energy and food.