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Ukraine could run out of air defense missiles in two weeks
Insights from Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, and Financial Times
The News
Ukraine could run out of critical air defense missiles and interceptors in as little as two to three weeks if Russia continues its high-intensity aerial bombardments, Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said Friday following a recent visit to Kyiv.
His comments come after a major Russian missile strike destroyed Kyiv’s largest electricity plant Thursday, with the damage to power facilities set to exacerbate worsening blackouts and energy rationing across the country.
If Russia keeps attacking at the rate he witnessed in Ukraine, Kyiv “will be out of the rockets and interceptors in about two to three weeks,” Pevkur told reporters in Washington, D.C. “We are not talking about half a year,” he said.
Ukrainian officials have incessantly asked allies for additional air defense munitions and air defense systems, warning that the country is unable to protect itself from Russia’s stepped-up bombardment.
“We need air defense systems and other defense assistance, not just turning a blind eye and having lengthy discussions,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X Thursday.
SIGNALS
Ukrainian officials want air defenses, not diplomacy
Ukrainian officials have grown increasingly frustrated with their Western allies’ reluctance to provide more air defenses. “Nice and quiet diplomacy didn’t work,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Washington Post.
The country wants a U.S.-designed air defense system known as Patriot. Each unit of missile launchers, known as a battery, costs more than $1 billion, and Ukraine has identified more than 100 Patriots in allied countries that are surplus to requirements, the Post said. Ukraine needs at least seven Patriot air defense batteries to cover its largest cities and parts of the battlefield, its foreign minister said. European officials have resisted Kyiv’s request, arguing that they have no surplus air defenses. Patriot batteries and interceptors remain in high demand in Europe and the Middle East, where hundreds of attacks on U.S. bases have led the Pentagon to deploy additional air defense units, further limiting available stocks.
Russia’s attacks grow more effective as Kyiv’s defenses weaken
As a consequence of Ukraine’s air defense shortages, Russian drone and missile attacks have steadily grown more effective. Last May, Ukraine reported shooting down as many as 90% of Russian missiles and drones, a figure that dropped to 30% during Thursday’s strikes. Russia has also adapted new tactics, firing missiles that change direction mid-strike to evade air defenses and launching waves of attacks with drones and missiles to overwhelm Ukraine’s remaining defenses, Estonia’s defense minister Pevkur said. In a worst-case scenario where Ukraine is left without air defenses altogether, “Russian heavy bombers could be used to destroy Ukraine’s cities and critical infrastructure,” Dara Massicot, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in Foreign Affairs, adding: “Time is running out.”
