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Bonds rise as traders fear war will trigger economic slowdown

Mar 30, 2026, 6:34pm EDT
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Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan rose Monday as concerns ballooned about an economic slowdown driven by the war in the Middle East.

US Treasury yields had risen in the last month on bets the war would fan inflation; that thinking has morphed into fears of a pandemic-like global economic shutdown, with traders betting on interest rate cuts rather than hikes this year, Bloomberg reported.

“The market is now letting its imagination run wild” about what could happen if there is no resolution to the war in a month’s time, one strategist said.

The International Monetary Fund warned Monday that the conflict will dent economic growth in a “global, yet asymmetric” shock.

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