President Donald Trump is known for The Art of the Deal, but Iran has showcased another of his pursuits: the art of misdirection.
As he keeps holding off on threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure while moving significant military resources into the Middle East, some experts read Trump’s ceasefire talk as a potential head fake — albeit one with the added upside of calming markets.
“The [administration] has played this same move three times in just one year,” said Jonathan Hackett, a former Marine Corps interrogator and special operations capabilities specialist. “Trump has also not ordered large-footprint military assets in either of his presidencies without actually using those forces.”
Trump’s aides see his up-and-down approach to the war as a deliberate tactic: “He finds great joy in keeping his adversaries on their toes, including the fake news media,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
As more troops get deployed to the region, seizing Kharg Island, where much of Iran’s oil infrastructure is located, “just became more than a definite maybe,” said a person familiar with the situation. “This is more than signaling.” The person also pointed to the decision to send over paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division as “another key chess piece being put on the board to support a limited land campaign.”
Whether one actually happens is still unclear, but there’s a growing belief among Trump allies that a ground operation is all but inevitable. As Semafor has reported, the Trump administration — as well as prior presidents — have long planned for such scenarios in Iran, including one that would see special operations teams secure the country’s uranium.