The News
Donald Trump could use a clear victory as his presidency enters a perilous phase. He doesn’t have a lot of ways to get one.
The war with Iran is grinding on with muddled goals, more service members heading overseas, rising energy prices, and growing Republican fears of ground troops. A partial government shutdown is hobbling air travel, and Trump is faced with a deal to end it that would not deliver his top domestic priority, a voter ID bill that can’t pass Congress as written.
Trump lost two Florida state-level special elections — including one in his literal backyard — and faced dire poll numbers this week. Republicans are down 11 points on the generic congressional ballot released by Quinnipiac; a Reuters poll showed Trump’s approval at just 36 percent.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who’s fighting for his own political life in Texas, said he didn’t read too much into the special-election losses. But Cornyn recommended in an interview that the GOP turn its focus back home, despite the “huge importance” of Trump’s overseas forays: “They don’t really resonate with the voters very much. And what does resonate with voters is the high price of gasoline and things like that.
“We need to finish off the Iranian war, disable them from being able to pursue nuclear weapons or develop ballistic missiles,” Cornyn added. “And then I think we need to pay more attention to domestic issues.”
Inside the White House, aides are urging the party not to panic and reminding fellow Republicans that Trump can sell the upside of compromises. US operations have decimated Tehran’s leadership and military capabilities, and Trump would tout any deal that reopens the Department of Homeland Security as a big domestic win.
Yet the president doesn’t appear ready to sell voters yet. He’s openly ambivalent about an emerging agreement to fund DHS despite intense lobbying from Republican senators and telegraphing military escalation in Iran while also trying to pursue negotiations on a ceasefire.
Michael Caputo, a first-term aide and longtime Trump confidant, said that if any “new administration isn’t nervous for wins and hunting them down in March of the second year, then I would be worried that we’re going to lose everything.” Caputo added that “we are exactly where we need to be.”
There’s reason to be extra-nervous about Iran. Absent a surprising breakthrough on a US ceasefire offer, Trump will have to decide soon on whether to use ground troops to achieve his objectives of degrading Iran’s long-term nuclear capability and defense production. Most urgently, he must find a way to revive the global trade in gas and oil, currently strangled in the Strait of Hormuz and subject to threats by Iran’s Houthi allies.
One Republican senator told Semafor that it will probably take some US ground troops and diplomacy to reopen the strait. While Trump may end up declaring victory, this senator described the operation’s current state as a “f–king clusterf–k and entirely predictable.”
“There was a lot of superficial thinking that went into this operation,” the GOP senator said. “It’s like so much that happens right now. A very risk-seeking executive decides to make some risky moves that could turn out well.”
A classified briefing for House members on Iran didn’t end well on Wednesday, either, as even the Republican Armed Services Committee chair knocked the administration: “We’re just not getting enough answers.”
In response to a request for comment, a White House official pointed to polling that shows the Iran war commanding strong support from MAGA-identifying voters. The official cited press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s remarks to reporters on Wednesday, when she reminded young voters that “Trump is doing this for you.”
Know More
Some Trump allies are growing concerned about the narrowing path for Trump to claim success. One person close to the White House argued that “the goalpost seems to be changing” on Iran, urging Trump to “take your wins when you can take them.”
“People have to start feeling good. And I can tell you right now, a lot of people don’t feel good, and people vote based on their feelings,” the person added.
Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., acknowledged that there isn’t “a good time to be in the middle of a conflict” but said it would have been worse if Trump waited to strike Iran.
“I just want to make sure that there’s a clear understanding that it will be a conditions-based and not a time-based withdrawal. I think that’s the mistake that was made in Afghanistan,” Rounds said, underscoring that “the president made the right choice at that time” to attack Iran.
The most immediate issue in front of Trump is the 40-day DHS shutdown. The president previously insisted any deal with Democrats include passage of legislation that would require proof of citizenship and photo identification for voting.
“[Y]ou can’t have the world and at home feeling like s–t,” said the person close to the White House. “That’s what Biden had and that’s why he lost. At least make your backyard feel better. And I just don’t think that they’re doing that right now, and that’s a massive political risk.”
Republicans are waking up to that risk, with four GOP senators lobbying Trump on Monday to take a DHS deal amid punishing airport security lines. They left thinking he’d support a compromise, and Leavitt said on Wednesday that Trump told her “he’s willing to try all strategies” to accomplish his goals.
“The president supports a pathway forward,” said Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who met with Trump on Monday. “He’s going to let us do our work, and he wants to see the department fully funded.”
Yet any compromise would fall far short of the voter ID bill Trump vowed to pass — “I don’t see how you get it done,” said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. — and his conservative allies are already warning against the emerging deal.
Room for Disagreement
Scott dismissed Tuesday’s election results in Florida as having no bearing on the GOP’s midterm fate. He said he was “not particularly” worried.
“Special elections, it’s just hard to get the vote out,” he said.
And one Democratic senator cast doubt on the perception that Trump is keen to claim a win, telling Semafor that he seems “resigned” to not getting what he wants on a funding deal — which “might be good for us.”
The View From Democrats
“If we can get a free and fair election, this looks like it’s going to be a bloodbath,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.
Burgess and Shelby’s View
Reporting out this story, we were reminded of something a White House ally told us more than a year ago: That if polling around the start of July 2026 is bad, then it’s time to panic.
That moment isn’t here, but it’s getting close — which explains why Republicans clearly want to wrap up the Iran war soon and shift more to domestic issues. It’s not clear whether Trump agrees.
The president’s resistance to endorsing Cornyn in his Texas primary race, and his public observations that the party in power usually struggles in midterms, show that he’s not yet fully focused on helping the GOP in November.
Notable
- A majority of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the war in a Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday.