what’s at stake
The US decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil for a month amid the Iran war provides a clear, if temporary, economic boost to Moscow.
Experts and officials also note other benefits Russia may get from the conflict in Iran: It’s eating up the weapons that Ukraine needs as it fights Russia, and it’s distracting the White House from talks to end Russia’s four-year war.
Maria Mezentseva, a Ukrainian member of parliament, told Semafor she is particularly “concerned” about the decision on Russian oil. “That doesn’t help us win,” she said.
But it’s unclear how long Russia will reap the benefits, and whether ultimately Moscow will emerge a loser if the US successfully weakens Tehran, one of its strategic allies.
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who’s making the case
Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute, argued the war is benefiting Russia now, though he acknowledged that might not be the case long term if the US campaign is successful in permanently weakening Iran:
“The Iran war is right now, on balance, a net benefit for Russia for several reasons. First, Russia’s economic lifeline runs through its oil exports, and higher global energy prices translate directly into a bigger war chest. Second, President Trump is now heavily focused on this conflict — one that many initially expected to be brief but is proving more complex and protracted. As a result, there is limited bandwidth in the White House for advancing efforts such as renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
“Finally, the Iran war is exposing divisions between the United States and its European allies. For example, President Trump’s suggestion that NATO should help patrol the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with European reluctance to take on such a role, risks deepening transatlantic fissures at a time when unity is essential in confronting Russia. A divided NATO means a stronger Russia.
“That said, Russia and Iran are strategic partners, and any US effort that weakens Iran’s capacity to project power could, over time, have negative implications for Russia as well. While Russia may be a short-term beneficiary of the conflict, this outcome is not inevitable if the right policies are pursued.”
Maksym Beznosiuk, a strategic policy analyst focused on Russia, argued that the war would expose the limits of Russia’s power over the long-term:
“The Iran war may bring Russia some short-term tactical gains, but over the long term, it is unlikely to be a net benefit for the Kremlin. Higher global oil prices can provide temporary fiscal relief, but Russia’s crude still trades at a significant discount, which limits the scale of any windfall.
“Militarily, the impact is also limited. Russia no longer depends on Iran for drones or other military supplies, such as ammunition and missiles, to the extent it did in 2022 and 2023. In particular, Moscow has localized much of its Shahed-type production and turned drone manufacturing into a central part of its wartime industrial model.
“The bigger issue is strategic. The war in Iran reinforces a pattern that has become increasingly evident since 2022: Russia maintains formal partnerships but is often unable or unwilling to defend its partners decisively when they come under serious pressure. As seen in Syria, Venezuela, and now Iran, Moscow can project influence, but it struggles to act as a credible security guarantor.”
Notable
- Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran to help it target US forces, The Wall Street Journal reported.
- The Kremlin said this week that talks to end the Ukraine war are on a “situational pause” following the US-Israel war on Iran.