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How the US economy will cope with the Iran war

Mar 18, 2026, 6:19pm EDT
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Exxon gas station pump
Ken Cedeno/Reuters

Experts debated over how well the US economy will cope with the Middle East conflict.

Moody’s Analytics forecast the probability of a recession in the next year at 49%, driven largely by higher oil prices. And a Donald Trump ally and economist warned the economy won’t “be able to handle $100 a barrel for oil.”

Barack Obama’s former economic adviser, though, argued that he doesn’t think the war in Iran will “significantly alter the economy’s direction,” writing: “The American economy, like an ocean liner, is extremely hard to turn.”

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the impacts from the conflict remain uncertain, but that the situation remains far removed from the “stagflation” of the 1970s.

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