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The Republican Congress is consumed by a daunting, nearly impossible task: Satisfying President Donald Trump’s desire for new federal voter ID legislation.
Trump’s top priority is causing painful divisions among congressional Republicans, slowing down the bipartisan housing bill that could give him a cost-of-living victory to tout. He’s also heaping pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to deliver, whether by killing the filibuster or forcing Democrats to hold the Senate floor for months with a “talking” filibuster.
GOP senators and aides described disarray behind the scenes this week as the party agonizes over how to take up the voter ID and citizenship bill next week while keeping Trump happy. Republicans have a major math problem: Of their 53 senators, at least four are opposed to the talking filibuster, and even more oppose killing the filibuster.
Passing the voter ID bill the normal way would require 60 votes to break a Democratic filibuster, and there’s zero evidence that strategy will work either.
Thune’s “worked at it hard, but he understands the math. I mean, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist: right now just listening to four or five people [in the Senate GOP], we don’t have the votes,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told Semafor.
“We need to try everything we possibly can. And after we’ve exhausted everything, just figure out we need to bust the filibuster.”
Part of Republicans’ quandary is that, as much as most want to please Trump, they have different views about how to do that. Tuberville and his allies on the right want to vote on killing the Senate’s 60-vote requirement on legislation as soon as next week, worrying that Democrats would do the same whenever they take power — a highly debatable claim.
Other conservatives, like Utah Sen. Mike Lee, want to force Democrats to literally speak until they can’t anymore. That would require GOP unity, and even huge proponents of the voting bill say that strategy lacks the support to move forward.
As Trump demands success, under current circumstances the bill is almost certainly going to fail. Thune’s job is figuring out how to drive home that Republicans are trying, even if they can’t succeed.
As he put it on Thursday: “I can’t guarantee an outcome on this legislation, but I can guarantee that we are going to put Democrats on the record.”
Asked for comment, the White House pointed to Trump’s comments on Wednesday that Thune “has gotta be a leader ... it’s the most popular bill I’ve ever seen put before Congress.”
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told Semafor that Thune is “soliciting input from everyone, which is very difficult, because the conference has a wide variety of views on how to proceed — even if we’re united in our view that we want to make sure the voting system is fair.
“My concern has been that we not use it as a vehicle to repeal the filibuster rules,” she added.
Collins also warned that, while she supports the measure in its current form, she would have bigger qualms about potential additions that Trump’s aides have discussed: “[I]t is a mistake, in my judgment, to expand the bill to include any kinds of restrictions on state’s abilities to set the rules for absentee ballots.”
Another Republican senator told Semafor about worries surrounding Trump’s push to curtail mail-in voting: “That would disenfranchise a lot of our elderly. A lot of Republicans use mail-in ballots.”
“I don’t think they have all the right people in writing the bill. They should have involved people that have actually worked in elections before,” this GOP senator said. “Some of the issues need to be resolved before we move forward with it. But the public’s demanding it.”
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The demands to pass the legislation stem largely from Trump’s intense focus on it, which is intertwined with a pressure campaign among his MAGA faithful.
It’s put the entire party in a tough spot as Elon Musk and other social media influencers criticize Thune. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, even reversed his longstanding defense of the legislative filibuster this week as he faces down a difficult runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Trump has “stated what the goal is, and I’m committed to work toward that goal,” Cornyn told Semafor. But he declined to take a shot at Thune over the imbroglio: “I think Senator Thune has done as good a job as you can do in that position.”
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Thune is “engaged to try to get it done.” Both Cornyn and Scott ran against Thune for the GOP leader job.
Thune is preparing to put the bill on the Senate floor next week, using the House-passed legislation to consider it with a simple majority. Ultimately, though, the legislation will need 60 votes to end debate and pass the Senate.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., told Semafor he wants the Senate to vote on the bill every Monday until it passes, projecting that Democratic support might materialize if the opposing party got worn down.
“I would like to find a path to victory where we get the Save Act signed,” Marshall said. “When President Trump speaks, he’s saying that the Save Act is the most important issue that Congress can take care of right now, and can literally change the game.”
A talking filibuster would likely delay the confirmation of Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., to lead the Department of Homeland Security. It would also make it impossible to reopen DHS if there’s an improbable deal to fund the department.
At this point, the past few debilitating weeks have sapped the energy of the most chatty members.
“I’m talked out on the SAVE Act. That’s all I’ve talked about,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La. “I’m done. We’ll see Monday.”
Room for Disagreement
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., wants to put senators on the record on killing the filibuster ASAP. And Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said his party would learn quickly if it had the votes to sustain the talking filibuster strategy.
“The first time the Democrats vote to adjourn, that’s the test vote. And if Republicans vote with the Democrats to adjourn, then your idea is done,” Paul said. He said he, “in all likelihood,” would vote to continue a talking filibuster.
Burgess’s view
Trump has cast the bill as essential for electoral success: He said this week it would “guarantee the midterms” and that it’s all voters are talking about. I’m not so sure about that.
An engaged faction of the conservative movement is certainly all in on the voting bill, and polls show elements of the legislation are popular with voters. But if past is prologue, the election will hinge on how voters are feeling about the economy and Trump’s leadership — a force that no new voting rules can hack around.
And the fight over the SAVE America Act seems to be fracturing the GOP at the moment. That isn’t usually a formula for political success.
Notable
- Former Sen. Joe Manchin said it’s “deeply disappointing” Cornyn changed his mind on the filibuster.