The News
US President Donald Trump’s move to rapidly recast US foreign policy along protectionist, transactional lines has sparked fear among European nations, as the future of the transatlantic alliance looks increasingly in doubt.
India and China, however, could ultimately stand to benefit from a more multipolar world where less power is concentrated in the hands of the US, analysts and officials from both countries have recently suggested.
SIGNALS
Trump’s disengagement could see Beijing’s vision become the ‘go-to’ for international diplomacy
Trump has ruled out offering Ukraine security guarantees in any future ceasefire agreement with Russia, which is where China could step in to lead a peacekeeping force, and “guide the new world towards peace and stability” more broadly, a Beijing-based expert argued in The South China Morning Post. China seeks to promote an international order that rejects the Western-led emphasis on universal human rights in favor of a system “based on distinctive civilizations, each with their own values and political systems whose sovereignty and authority must be respected,” an Asia-Pacific expert wrote for Chatham House. With China’s influence increasing at the UN, a disengaged Trump administration could mean Beijing’s vision becomes “the go-to framing of international diplomacy.”
India hopes to cooperate with the US but could yet suffer
The Trump administration sees India as an “important partner” when it comes to competing with China, a former White House official said in February. Trump’s openness to cooperating with other members of an international strategic forum known as The Quad — India, Australia, and Japan — is also promising, India’s foreign minister recently told a Chatham House event. But Trump’s trade policies could hurt India, both directly and indirectly: The president has labelled India a “very big abuser” of tariffs, and levies on other countries risk destabilising international trade, “the last thing India needs at this stage of its economic development,” the East Asia Forum argued.