What to watch for on a huge primary day

DALLAS — At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries, as the midterm campaign begins with a frenzied gut check on voter anger.

Here in Texas, Republicans smashed primary spending records to protect Sen. John Cornyn from two MAGA challengers, running months of ads that blasted state Attorney General Ken Paxton as an amoral “con man” and Rep. Wesley Hunt as a vote-skipping layabout. But public and private polling put Cornyn well below the 50% required to prevent a May runoff against Paxton and Hunt.

And Democrats will settle their own unexpectedly messy contest between state lawmaker James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

Two House Republicans are also endangered in Texas. Some colleagues have already abandoned Rep. Tony Gonzales, who’s denied any wrongdoing around the suicide of a former staffer with whom he exchanged sexual messages indicating an alleged affair.

Gonzales was struggling to hold his 23rd District even before the scandal, barely beating 2nd Amendment activist and content creator Brandon Herrera in 2024; Herrera is running again, along with Quico Canseco, a one-term congressman who’s made multiple comeback attempts.

Outside Houston, Rep. Dan Crenshaw is facing his own “anti-RINO” challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, who’s been boosted by friendly interviews with MAGA influencers, an endorsement from Turning Point Action, and, last week, an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz.

The Trump loyalty test is playing out in the state-level race to replace Paxton, too: Cruz has endorsed Rep. Chip Roy, but Paxton backs his former deputy Aaron Reitz, and state Sen. Mayes Middleton has pummeled Roy with ads about his criticism of Trump.

Two incumbent Democrats face their own challengers after a 2025 re-map of the state deleted several of their safe seats. In Dallas, former Rep. Colin Allred is running to win his seat back from Rep. Julie Johnson, who won it after Allred ran and lost a 2024 race against Cruz.

“It’s a unique situation where the voters actually have a hard record to compare, and hard results to compare,” Johnson told Semafor. “Did you author legislation on health care? I have. He hasn’t. Did you author legislation on affordability? I have. He hasn’t.”

In Houston, 11-term Rep. Al Green is challenging newly-elected Rep. Christian Menefee, who won his seat after the death of an elderly incumbent. Democrats see trouble ahead for Green, who’s 78 years old and has been hammered by ads from the cryptocurrency PAC Fairshake.

“[We] cannot allow the crypto industry to control Congress,” Green said after the ad buy started.

A similar story’s playing out in North Carolina, where Rep. Valerie Foushee is defending her safe Democratic seat against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam.

Foushee beat Allam by 9 points in a 2022 race for the seat, helped by $2.1 million in spending from AIPAC’s super PAC and $1 million from Fairshake.

Last summer, Foushee said she would reject further AIPAC support and cosponsored legislation to block military funding for Israel. The pro-Israel group cut Foushee off, and a new pro-Palestinian group, American Priorities, rushed into the 4th District to help Allam.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who backed Allam in both campaigns, came to Durham to support her; Public First Action, a super PAC funded by Anthropic, swooped in to help Foushee, who for the first time was being outspent on the air.